Putin’s spring offensive backfired.

As the Kremlin prepared to declare an absolute victory in the spring of 2026, it never anticipated that its most elite units would flee without looking back.

Vladimir Putin’s massive offensive plan, which he had been meticulously crafting for months, was shaken to its core before the first step had even been taken.

On paper, the plan promised victory.

A massive logistics network had been established, fed from the Luhansk border.

Thousands of soldiers, hundreds of armored vehicles and elite mechanized paratrooper divisions had been amassed north of Daetsk.

Having overcome the Zaparisia Denipro dilemma, the Russian army had a single target, Ukraine’s so-called impregnable last line of defense, the Fortress Belt, waiting.

And then came the utter devastation.

Before the Russian armed forces had even received the order to attack, a shock wave from the southern front leveled the entire military infrastructure.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive quietly ignited in late February had literally shattered the Russian frontline strategy by the end of March.

Data from the battlefield painted a picture of collapse for Moscow.

A full 470 km of territory was swept back like a hurricane.

Nine settlements were liberated and three strategic points were completely cleared of invaders.

In just a few weeks, over 11,000 Russian soldiers were taken out of action.

But the real disaster for the Kremlin was something else.

Those elite units waiting to capture the fortress belt threw their attack plans aside and began fleeing south in a panic.

Thousands of Russian soldiers in the Zaparisia and Denipro corridors had abandoned their positions like a disoriented army.

Alexander Cerski, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, personally assessed the situation during his working visit to the southern operational area.

He held one-on-one meetings with the commanders of the assault group and the leaders of the airborne units.

He listened to reports and discussed options for further action.

And then he made his statement.

Alexander Searski officially confirmed that since the start of the operation, they have taken control of an area of approximately 470 km and neutralized over 11,000 invading troops.

These figures were not mere statistics.

470 km is an area larger than many districts in Ukraine.

Furthermore, 11,000 neutralized soldiers amount to nearly the entire strength of a Russian division.

While thanking Ukrainian soldiers for their courage and effectiveness, Sirki was actually sending a message to the world.

Ukraine is not just defending, it is reclaiming territory.

So, how did KV achieve this?

The operation’s origins dated back to a long-term process.

This wave of liberation achieved before the end of March had actually been planned months in advance.

The Ukrainian airborne forces launched their first moves toward Alexandrifka before March even began.

Once the operation was officially announced, time began to run out for the Russian forces stationed in the south, the objective was clear and straightforward.

To disrupt Russia’s plans for advancing in the Denipro Petrovsk and Zaparisia regions, to defeat Russian forces and to push them beyond the administrative border of Denipro Petrovsk.

The Ukrainian armed forces did exactly that.

As of March 25th, nine settlements had been liberated.

Seven of these settlements were in the Deniprops region and two were in the Zaparisia region.

In addition to all this, three more settlements were completely cleared of the enemy.

The seventh rapid response corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces officially confirmed these figures on March 26th.

But the true impact of this operation went beyond the numbers.

ISW reports summarized the situation strikingly.

Ukraine’s dual tactical effort in the south created a ripple effect across other sectors of the front.

Russian forces suddenly found themselves caught between two fires.

Should they defend against Ukraine’s counterattacks in the south or continue the planned offensive in the east?

In other words, they were faced with a major dilemma.

However, Russian forces could not do both and they were forced to make the worst possible choice.

It was precisely at this point that Russia’s retreat to the south began.

ISW maps were changing in the Denipro and Zaparisia corridors.

These maps clearly showed the effects of the dwindling Russian troop numbers.

However, the Kremlin had to fill these southern front lines.

In early March 2026, the Russian military command was forced to redeploy its most valuable units from the Daetsk Oblast to the south.

These were no ordinary units.

The VDV, Russia’s elite airborne forces and marine infantry brigades were abruptly withdrawn from the Daetsk front.

All of these units were deployed to the Zaparisia and Denipro Petrovsk border.

Elements of the VDV division and the 76th VDV division were transferred south and the 120th Marine Infantry Division was shifted to the Julipole and Alexandrifka lines.

The aim was to retake the lost Ukrainian territories and redeploy the thousands of Russian soldiers who had withdrawn back into these areas.

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However, the Kremlin’s strategy to regain the Zaparisia Denro axis created an incredible vacuum on the battlefield.

This meant the withdrawal of the units that formed the backbone of Russia’s spring offensive from the front lines.

Think about it.

While Russia has been planning a major offensive on the fortress belt for months, it has been forced to send its elite paratroopers and marines south.

This is like pulling your queen back to defend it in a chess game.

You lose your offensive capability.

The ISW made this clear.

Russian forces were already unable to launch simultaneous offensives in different sectors of the front.

Now while trying to deal with the Ukrainian advance in the south, it is highly unlikely they will make significant progress in the fortress belt because this time too the Daetsk Oblast had largely been left vacant and there was no guarantee that Russian units coming from Daetsk would succeed at the Denipro Zaparisia junction.

The picture of the opposing forces on the front line lays bare the tragic scale of this operation from the Kremlin’s perspective.

On the Ukrainian side, assault brigades led by the air assault forces, regional defense units, and drone teams operated in a coordinated manner.

Facing them was Russia’s most trusted combined arms army.

It was attempting to hold western Zaparisia with the 19th and 42nd motorized infantry divisions.

Meanwhile, the Combined Arms Army’s 127th motorized infantry division and 291st motorized infantry regiment were striving to halt the Ukrainian advance along the Olexandrifka line.

However, none of these Russian military units could stop the waves of attacks.

The casualty toll was devastating for Russia.

From January 29th to March 25th, 3,676 Russian soldiers were lost in the Olexandrevka sector alone.

With these staggering losses, the Kremlin effectively made a major mistake in Daetsk and failed to achieve the desired success in southern Ukraine.

From Putin’s perspective, in addition to troop losses, reports of military vehicle losses from the southern front lines continued to pour in.

eight tanks, 13 armored combat vehicles, 250 artillery systems, 141 motor vehicles.

These are the most strategic military resources required by Russia’s armored units.

However, the Kremlin’s flawed military strategy has come at a high cost to Russian forces.

This could be described as the numerical expression of an army being whittleled down.

So, why did the Russians disintegrate so quickly?

Part of the answer lies in technology.

Ukraine exploited its drone and artillery superiority to the fullest.

Russian mechanized units were systematically hunted down by Ukrainian FPV drone operators as they advanced across open terrain.

A Ukrainian border guard reported that in areas where Russian forces could not muster sufficient personnel.

They attempted to intensify operations using inexpensive Molia fixedwing FPV drones.

But this was not enough to breach Ukraine’s drone wall.

Colonel Vladislav Velocian, spokesperson for the southern defense forces, highlighted the full gravity of the situation.

Russian forces intensified attacks on Juliple and Verkna Tersa by redeploying relatively elite Marine and VDV units.

Elements of the 40th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet were moved to Varvarifka and Puki approximately 2 to 3 weeks ago and these units have suffered heavy losses since then.

Even Russia’s 14th Spettzna’s brigade has been drawn into this chaos.

Drone operators from this special forces unit affiliated with the GRU attacked Ukrainian positions near Zernitzia, southwest of Alexandrifka and Veliko Mikailka southeast of it.

Drone teams from the motorized rifle regiment operated against Ukrainian forces in the Denipra Petrrok Oblast, but none of them could stop Ukraine’s advance.

Following all this, Kiev prepared to deliver the final blow on the southern front lines and finally the desired outcome was achieved.

The liberation of the village of Berzov marked the symbolic climax of the operation.

On March 26th, the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces Command announced that this village located southeast of Alexandrifka had been liberated and a Russian salient had been eliminated.

This meant that the Denipro Petrovsk oblast had been almost completely cleared.

Alexander Kareno, head of the general staff’s main operational directorate, confirmed this.

According to Kareno, Ukrainian forces managed to liberate nearly the entire Denipro Petrovsk region.

Now, let’s step back and look at the bigger picture.

Why is this operation so important?

Because Ukraine achieved its largest net territorial gain in a single month since the summer 2023 counter offensive.

Even ISW’s conservative mapping methodology confirmed a gain of at least 334 square kilmters and it acknowledged that the actual figure is likely higher.

The Ukrainian side meanwhile claims that by liberating a much larger area it has not only slowed down Russia’s spring offensive plans but has partially derailed them.

The strategic implications of these successes are profound.

Russia’s 2026 spring summer offensive targeted the fortress belt.

four large heavily fortified cities with a combined pre-war population exceeding 380,000.

The Daetsk line formed by Slovansk, Kremursk, Duska, and Costantineka.

But the ISW’s assessment was brutally clear for the Russians.

It is highly unlikely that Russian forces will capture this belt in 2026.

Russia tried in 2014 and failed.

It tried in 2022 and failed again.

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In the war’s fifth year, such an operation would likely require a multi-year effort and result in significant personnel and material losses.

Even Prosk, located within this fortress line, was a town with a pre-war population of just 60,000.

It took Russia nearly 2 years to capture that city.

However, the fortress belt is six times larger than Pukovsk.

In other words, to capture this massive stretch, the Kremlin might need hundreds of thousands of troops and an equal amount of military equipment.

Even in Russia, these stark realities are beginning to be acknowledged.

Andre Cardipolof, chairman of the state Duma Defense Committee, stated that it is still too early to speak of a victorious spring offensive.

Cardipolof also admitted that fighting on the front lines is difficult, particularly noting that the clashes in Costantka are complicated by the city’s size and Ukraine’s defensive fortifications.

This is a clear sign that the Kremlin has begun to lower expectations even within its own ranks.

As Putin’s plans to retake the southern front lines fell through, encouraging news for Ukraine was already emerging from the region.

This situation could well strip the Russian leader of his last hope because intriguing reports have also emerged from western Zapperia.

Geoloccated imagery revealed that Ukrainian forces had liberated northern and central Primorska as well as Richna.

Even a Kremlin affiliated mill blogger was forced to acknowledge that Ukraine had advanced into the center and north of Primorska.

It was also confirmed that northwestern Steppnarsk had come under Ukrainian control.

Assault elements of the VDV regiment had previously infiltrated Richna, but they too were unable to hold their ground in this area.

Although drone operators from the VDV division attempted to stop Ukrainian drones near Orikiv, the front line continued to shift in Ukraine’s favor.

A Russian mill blogger made a striking admission on March 26th.

According to this confession, Ukrainian drones are completely blocking Russian logistics both on the front line and in the immediate rear in the direction of Zaparisia.

Meanwhile, the situation for Russia on the Daetsk front was far from rosy.

Yes, Russian forces intensified mechanized and motorized attacks starting on March 17th.

Over 600 attacks were recorded between March 17th and 20th, but progress for the Russians remained minimal.

The Lyman direction was Russia’s main pressure point.

This settlement was seen as the gateway to Slovian and Kromatursk.

Lieutenant Colonel Dimmitro Zaparoettz, spokesperson for the Ukrainian 11th Corps, reported that Russian forces were launching seven to eight attacks per day, but Ukrainian drone operators were holding their positions on the high ground east of Slovansk.

Russian forces in the low-lying areas were being systematically targeted from above.

Meanwhile, the situation is becoming even bleeer for the Russian army as it moves northward.

The latest situation in Kupansk is more complex from the Kremlin’s perspective.

Russian infiltrations were continuing in the basement of the ruined hospital in the city center.

But Colonel Victor Trehub, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force, clearly stated that this did not alter control of the territory.

A small number of Russian soldiers estimated to be between a squad and a platoon in strength were operating in a scattered manner in Kupansk.

Traub emphasized that contrary to Russian milloggers claims that Kupansk has fallen, it was too early to say that all Russian soldiers had been eliminated.

In Luhansk, Ukrainian partisans carried out a quiet but effective operation.

The Crimeabas based Ukrainian partisan group Aesh disabled a railway relay cabinet near the city of Luhansk.

This line served as a critical logistics artery for Russian forces heading toward Kupansk and Lyman.

The attack directly impacted the delivery of ammunition and spare parts to the front lines.

Meanwhile, Russian air strikes continued to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.

After Kiev achieved successes on the front lines, the Kremlin once again pushed its unacceptable strategy just as it did at the start of the war.

Between the nights of March 25th and 26th, 153 unmanned aerial vehicles were launched.

Approximately 100 of these were Shahed type drones.

The Ukrainian Air Force shot down 130 of them.

Ukrainian President Zalinski warned that Russia was preparing a new operation targeting water supply systems.

As seen, the Ukrainian armed forces were sweeping Russian troops from front lines at various points.

However, the Kremlin was diverting its intentions by targeting the country’s systematic lifelines outside the battlefield.

Nevertheless, Kiev has taken perhaps its most decisive steps in recent days, seriously surprising Putin.

When all these events are considered together, the picture that emerges is crystal clear.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south was an operation designed not merely to gain territory but to shift the entire balance of the war and they succeeded.

Russia’s fortress belt offensive which had been in the planning stages for months hit a crisis before it could gain full momentum.

Elite units are now unable to withdraw from the south.

Attacks in Daetsk have lost momentum.

Ukrainian drone dominance has emerged as a decisive factor at every point along the front.

The Kremlin knows it cannot secure the fortress ring on the battlefield.

That is why it is trying to extract concessions from Ukraine at the negotiating table.

It is demanding that Ukraine surrender the unoccupied areas of the Donetsk Oblast.

The aim is to preserve personnel and material resources and secure a position from which it could reoccupy the area in the future.

But Ukraine’s 470 km counteroffensive in the south has fundamentally shaken this calculation.

Sirki’s words best summarize this analysis.

The liberation of Ukrainian territory continues.

This is not a wish.

It is a reality backed by concrete data from the front lines.

The largest territorial gain achieved in a single month since 2023.

Over 11,000 neutralized invaders, nine liberated settlements.

Russia’s spring offensive has begun.

Yes, but as long as it cannot breach the wall it faces in the south, advancing from the north also seems unlikely.

In the fifth year of the war, Ukraine is not merely holding its ground.

It is striking back, reclaiming territory, and disrupting the enemy’s plans on its own front.

This operation in the south could go down in history as a critical turning point that sets the pace of the war for the remainder of 2026.

What are your thoughts on this?

Has Ukraine truly achieved a deterrent victory during this critical phase?

Or will the Kremlin be able to halt these gains with preparations for a new offensive in the coming days of spring?

We look forward to your comments.

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