
The spring has arrived, and Russia is supposed
to be making its war-ending offensive.Finally, cover is appearing, and the weather is getting
better.
But the same old story is playing out for Putin – he orders advances and his soldiers die.
Russia just had its worst month of the entire war, and Ukraine had its best, as the spring offensive
has collapsed and Russia’s war machine burns.
Record casualties, a new milestone reached,
and an advance rate so humiliating that Russia may as well have spent March doing absolutely
nothing are all lowlights for Putin that we’re going to be exploring as the video goes on.
But
we’re going to start with what Ukraine has done directly to make March 2026 the worst month of
the war so far for Putin’s forces, and we can sum that up with three words: Ukraine hit everything.
As Russia begins its spring push that is supposed to deliver the “inevitable” into Putin’s lap,
Ukraine has been amplifying its deep-strike strategy to a level that Russia never expected.
Strategic targets have been hit all over Russia in what Euromaidan Press dubs a “March Harvest.
”
Five factories, 10 oil refineries, oil plants, and air defenses have all been destroyed, with
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense itself stating that March 2026 has been one of the largest months
in terms of the sheer number of strategic targets that Ukraine has hit inside Russia itself.
Let’s
start with the factories.
Five of Russia’s key factories have been hit over the course of the
month, starting with the Kremniy El Plant, which is in the border region of Bryansk.
Known as one
of Russia’s largest microelectronics enterprises, this factory is where Russia makes the
microchips that are later placed inside its Iskander ballistic missiles, as well as
in its air defenses.
Ukraine has ruined this factory by taking out a production building and
a component warehouse used to store the equipment that Russia needs to make its missile chips.
Russia’s entire missile supply chain fell apart with this one strike.
For the next six months,
Russia won’t be able to make the microchips it needs for many of its missiles.
Repairs have to be
completed.
And with Bryansk being so close to the border with Ukraine, we’re willing to bet that the
Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, is watching and waiting for Russia to get just about so far
with its repair work before another drone or ten is launched to take out the Kremniy El Plant
once again.
But that’s just one of the five.
In Ulyanovsk, Ukraine hit the Aviastar Aircraft
Plant, taking out a climate-controlled shelter and several of the Il-76 and Il-78 aircraft being
stored at the plant.
Aviastar makes and maintains heavy transport aircraft, Euromaidan Press
reports, so losing it has a crippling effect on Russian logistics.
No heavy cargo aircraft
means a slowdown in the shuttling of equipment and troops throughout Russia and Ukraine.
Plus,
Ukraine took out a plant that keeps Russia’s aerial refueling tankers in good condition, so
we’ll see an impact on Russia’s aerial power, too.
The hits keep on coming with the 123rd
Aircraft Repair Plant, which is in Staraya Russa in the Novgorod oblast of Russia.
Yet more of
Ukraine’s drones rained down, and they hit hangars storing Il-76 aircraft, along with hitting missile
defense aircraft and the storage facilities Russia uses to keep its anti-aircraft missiles safe.
This
was yet another blow against Russia’s aircraft maintenance facilities, which, in turn, puts even
more pressure on Russia’s internal logistics.
Next up was Alchevsk and the Metallurgical Plant that
carries the region’s name.
Ukraine’s strike caused a massive fire at the facility, which builds
artillery shell casings, and is involved in the production of the armored steel that is used in
a lot of the military equipment required by the Russian armed forces.
So, bye-bye mechanized
assaults! And finally, there’s Sevastopol, where Ukraine hit Granit.
Why does that matter?
Granit is an “Innovation Center” and, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, it’s the only
center that Russia has in Crimea that is capable of repairing S-400 air defense systems.
You can
guess what this means.
More strikes against Crimea are incoming, and Russia won’t be able to do
much about them as its S-400 network falls apart.
This is bad for Russia.
And we’re just getting
started.
The Kremlin is already responding to Ukraine’s strikes by trying to move its production
facilities as far away as possible.
That’s what’s happening with the Roscosmos facility that
was in Khimki, which is in the Moscow region.
That facility is being moved to Omsk, which is in
Siberia, and the Ural Mountains region of Perm, in what Roscosmos is trying to frame as a move being
made to increase efficiency.
That makes sense.
We all know that efficiency is achieved by moving
your production plants as far away from the places where they’re most needed.
It’s all nonsense,
of course.
Roscosmos is moving its plant away from the Moscow region because it’s been watching
what happened in March, and it knows that Moscow is well within the range of Ukraine’s drones.
This
isn’t a move made for efficiency.
It’s literally running away from the problem.
And can you blame
Roscosmos? After all, it’s not like Ukraine is showing any signs of slowing down with its strikes
against Russia’s industrial complex.
On April 4, United24 Media reported that SBU drones had scored
another successful strike against the Alchevsk Metallurgical Plant that we mentioned a couple
of minutes ago.
That’s the second hit in a month, and it shows us that Ukraine has a strategy
in place.
Everything that Ukraine has hit once is (PROBABLY) going to be hit again.
And
if there’s anything that shows us how effective that particular strategy is, it’s what Ukraine
has been doing to Russia’s oil sector throughout March.
Ports and refineries are burning.
In
Afipsky and Albashioneft, a pair of refineries were hit by Ukraine’s drones.
Both made diesel
fuel, which is transported from the facilities to Russia’s southern military group in Ukraine.
In Novorossiysk, Ukraine hit the Sheskharis oil terminal and launched a devastating attack against
Port Kavkaz.
Those are hubs that Russia relies on to transport oil via the Black Sea to its
customers, as well as to get fuel to the warships in the Black Sea Fleet.
In Saratov, another
refinery was hit, and the same happened in Kirishi and Yaroslavl.
What we see there is the whittling
away of Russian resources that are responsible for creating aviation fuel, along with other products
that stabilize Russia’s domestic fuel sector.
Then, there were the headline strikes.
Primorsk
and Ust-Luga.
Both are homes to ports that Russia needs to keep its oil exports flowing through the
Baltic Sea and on to its customers all over the world, and both have been hit again and again by
Ukraine during the latter half of March.
Remember, this is the strategy that we told you about.
Hit it once.
Let Putin know that the drones can reach.
And before Russia can do much of anything
to respond, hit it over and over until it’s gone.
Ust-Luga was hit five times in March, with strikes
being recorded on March 22, 25, 27, 29, and 31.
Reuters reports that Ukraine has hit the Primorsk
oil terminal so many times that at least 40% of the terminal’s oil storage facilities have been
lost forever.
Back in Ust-Luga, the terminal was still on fire seven days after Ukraine carried
out its first strike, as highlighted in pictures shared on X by the Special Kherson Cat open-source
intelligence account.
There is no chance for Russia to claim that this was a minor strike, or
that Ukraine’s “drone debris” did a little bit of damage.
One of Russia’s most important ports is
a smoke-filled, fiery hellhole, and no matter how hard the fires are fought, they keep on growing
and are being made worse with every strike that Ukraine completes.
Here’s where this gets really
serious for Russia.
In a March 25 report, The Kyiv Independent called what was happening a “historic
low” as Russia’s oil exports plummeted off a cliff.
Bear in mind that there were more Ukrainian
drones to come, especially at Ust-Luga.
Ukraine had essentially halted 40% of Russia’s entire
export capacity with its attacks against Primorsk Ust-Luga and others, stopping Russia from selling
its oil at a time when the war in Iran has led to prices for a single barrel rocketing up to and
beyond $100.
Russia should be raking in the cash right now, but it’s instead dealing with fires
of indescribable magnitude at the very ports that were meant to be its liquid gold lifelines.
On the
refinery front, The Moscow Times reported on March 30 that Russia now faces a fuel production crunch.
Ukraine has intelligently combined its destruction of at least 40% of Russia’s export capacity with
attacks against facilities that make the fuel that Russia is trying to sell or send to its troops.
And here’s where it gets really clever.
Ukraine’s attacks against Primorsk and Ust-Luga prevent
Russia from shipping its oil.
That has a knock-on effect against the stricken refineries.
Even if
they’re able to produce their products, Russia has nowhere for those products to go.
They have to be
stored at the refineries until the logjam clears, and there is only so much space for that storage
before the refineries have to shut down and simply wait for everything to clear up.
This is an
indirect shutdown to go along with the chaos of the drone strikes.
And if Ukraine keeps on hitting
the oil terminals in places like Novorossiysk, Primorsk, and Ust-Luga, Russia is going to have
a whole lot of oil and fuel with nowhere to go.
Oh, and one more thing before we move on to
Russia’s wrecked air defenses.
On April 1, Kyiv Post reported that Rosneft, which
is one of Russia’s oil giant companies, had reported that its net income fell by 73% in
2025.
A combination of high taxes on profits, high interest rates, and “one-off factors,”
which roughly translates to “sanctions and drones are wrecking our operations,” led to the
company making just $3.
6 billion last year.
Sure, this sounds like a lot of money.
But that figure
representing a 73% decline is bad for Rosneft, which makes it bad for Russia.
Less oil being sold
means less revenue for the Kremlin to tax.
And now that terminals and refineries are burning, Rosneft
is staring down the barrel of a 2026 gun that is ready to fire in its face.
We haven’t even gotten
to the air defenses yet, and it’s already clear that March 2026 has been a horrendous month for
Russia in its war against Ukraine.
There’s a lot more coming.
But before we get to that, this is a
quick reminder that you’re watching The Military Show.
If you haven’t subscribed yet, now is the
perfect time to hit the button so you never miss one of our videos.
Now, back to the air defenses.
Russia lost a lot of them to Ukrainian strikes in March.
A dozen S-300 and S-400 air defense
systems were taken out during the course of the month.
These are both long-range air defense
systems that Russia relies on to take out drones and missiles.
Granted, they haven’t been doing
their jobs very well.
Ukraine wouldn’t have been able to hit Russia as hard as it has in March
if they were.
But Russia would rather have them than not, and now it doesn’t.
Adding to these
losses was the destruction of 10 of Russia’s medium and short-range air defense systems,
including Tor, Tor-M1, Pantsir-S1, Tunguska, and various versions of the Buk air defense units.
All are being used in Russia’s near and deep rear to fend off Ukraine’s drones.
The irony, of
course, is that it is the very drones that these air defenses are supposed to be stopping that are
taking them out of the war.
Plus, remember Crimea.
You’d be forgiven for forgetting, as we’ve been
rattling off so many March strikes that it’s easy to lose track.
But Ukraine also took out a repair
and maintenance facility that keeps Russia’s S-400s up and running.
So, we’re seeing Ukraine
take out multiple layers of Russian air defenses, and not just in terms of destroying units across
the range spectrum.
Ukraine is also hitting the means of repair and maintenance, meaning that
Russia’s damaged units aren’t going to be making it back out onto the battlefield.
The strikes
against air defenses are important because they open the door for everything else that we’ve
talked about in this video.
Factories and oil refineries are burning because Ukraine spent as
much of March carving out safe aerial corridors as it did on hitting those key facilities.
This
is a complex strategy, and it’s one that Ukraine is employing against the occupied territories
just as much as it is inside Russia itself.
The Kyiv Independent highlights that, noting that
an analysis of 1,530 verified Ukrainian strikes in Russia and the occupied territories carried
out between June 2025 and March 2026 revealed that 492 of those strikes targeted air defense
infrastructure.
Several hundred more targeted anti-access and aerial denial assets, such as
electronic warfare units and command systems.
This is a clear degradation of Russia’s air
defenses.
And we’re seeing the impact in Russia’s burning oil terminals and its shattered factories.
And just to rub a little salt in the Russian air defense wound, all of this happened to Russia
in a month when Ukraine’s air defenses performed better than they have in months.
According to
the Defense of Ukraine X account, Ukraine’s air defense efficiency has increased by 9.
7 percentage
points over the last four months.
Right now, Ukraine is at 89.
9% efficiency, having been at
80.
2% back in December, and it has a target of reaching 95% efficiency through its combination
of Western air defenses and homegrown assets, such as the interceptor drones that it has been
deploying against Russia’s Shahed-type drones.
Ukraine is getting better at defending against
aerial threats, while Russia faces more of those types of threats than ever before.
And that is
why March 2026 was the worst month of the war for Russia so far… Gotcha.
There is even more to
cover, as Russia’s woes in the skies are being compounded by an absolutely disastrous start to
the spring and summer offensive that is supposed to lead to Russia taking the Donbas and large
swathes of Ukraine’s southern territory.
Putin would have hoped he could console himself with
gains in Ukraine even as Russia’s factories, oil infrastructure, and air defenses burned.
Putin was wrong.
Heading to the ground, we see that March 2026 was the first month in two and a
half years that Russia made precisely no net gains on the ground in Ukraine.
That’s according to The
Independent, which points out that the same month saw Ukraine recapture nine square kilometers, or
about 3.
47 square miles, of its own territory, as Russia’s ground assault has been rattled by
continued communication problems caused by the loss of Starlink and Putin’s own campaign
against the Telegram messaging app.
What this tells us is that the spring offensive, which
has been marked by Russia launching more assaults against Ukraine’s defenses in March than it has
at any other time in 2026, has gotten off to a bad start.
Scratch that.
This is the equivalent
of an Olympic sprinter hearing the starting gun and running backwards before falling flat on
their face.
If Putin were paying attention, he might have seen this coming.
Russia’s gains in
Ukraine have been slowing down for a long time, as the Institute for the Study of War pointed
out in a March 31 assessment of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It says that the period between
October 2025 and March 2026 saw Russia seize just 1,929.
69 square kilometers, or about 745.
06 square
miles, of Ukraine.
That’s already a low figure, but it even pales in comparison to the October
2024 to March 2025 period, when Russia was able to capture 2,716.
57 square kilometers, or about
1,048.
87 square miles, of Ukraine.
Russia’s forces are stalling out on the ground even as the
spring offensive officially gets underway.
And they’ve just hit the grimmest of milestones.
As Putin feeds more meat into the grinder, Russia has just surpassed 1.
3 million casualties
in the Ukraine war.
That’s according to MINFIN, which puts its official figure at 1,303,550
casualties as of April 5.
That is a catastrophic number of losses.
It’s certainly more than
the losses experienced by any modern military.
For context, the U.
S.
and its coalition allies
suffered 3,486 deaths during Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, per the U.
K.
’s Help for
Heroes charity.
That was in an operation that lasted for 13 years between October 2001 and
December 2014.
Russia hasn’t even hit a third of that time in its Ukraine invasion, and it has
suffered a casualty count that makes it seem like Putin is waging a war against his own military.
March was a big contributor to getting Russia over the line in reaching a new milestone that
no modern military should ever reach.
March 17 saw Russia record a record-breaking day as it lost
1,710 of its soldiers, which is the most recorded in 2026 so far.
It’s only going to get worse for
Putin.
As Russia’s latest offensive intensifies, it seems almost inevitable that we’re going to see
several days where Russia burns through more than 2,000 of its soldiers in 24 hours.
Compounding
this issue is that March was yet another month when Russia’s volunteer recruitment was lower than
its losses on the battlefield.
Confirmed Russian losses were 89,000 between January and March
2026, United24 Media reported on April 1.
The real number is likely much higher, perhaps even
veering above 100,000, as these are only losses that Ukraine has been able to confirm on camera.
The same period has seen Russia recruit just 80,000 new soldiers, the same outlet reports.
That
means it’s well behind its target of recruiting 409,000 by the end of 2026, and it’s falling below
target at a time when its casualty count is on the rise.
None of this is good for Putin.
So, how
has Russia’s failing president responded? If you think he’s going to change Russia’s approach or do
anything that could reverse the flow of its losses on the battlefield and inside its own territory,
then you haven’t been paying attention for the last four years.
Putin has no new ideas.
But what
he and his Kremlin cronies do have are threats.
Hilariously, Russia has looked at the shambles
that March 2026 has proven to be and decided that now is the perfect time to tell Ukraine
that it needs to cede the Donbas.
On March 31, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported
that Ukraine has been told by Russia that it must withdraw its forces from the Donbas within
the next two months.
Putin’s mouthpiece Dmitry Peskov has doubled down on this demand, stating
that Zelenskyy should make this decision for the sake of Ukrainian troops right now to save them
from the horror that Russia is going to inflict.
Has Putin been watching the same war as everybody
else? Russia has its worst month of the Ukraine war ever in March 2026, and it decides that
now is the time to make demands of Ukraine.
“Withdraw from the Donbas, and Russia promises
to stop losing record amounts of troops and air defenses, and we’ll also be gracious enough
to allow Ukraine to stop hitting our oil infrastructure and factories.
” It’s a ridiculous
demand, and it shows how disconnected the Kremlin is from the realities of what’s happening on the
battlefield and inside its own territory.
This is Russian desperation.
And if March 2026 is
any indication, there will be no withdrawal.
Just more firepower delivered to Russia by
a Ukrainian military that is in a very clear resurgence.
The March from hell may be over, but
worse is to come for Russia.
Putin’s narrative of an overwhelming force coming to topple
Ukraine has collapsed.
Experts are saying that Ukraine is finishing this war, as we’re hitting a
turning point that goes anywhere but Putin’s way.
Find out more in our video, and remember to
subscribe to The Military Show for more coverage of the latest developments in Ukraine’s defense
of its territory against Russian aggression.
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