
Iran’s military has been razed.
What’s left of
its leadership is in complete disarray.
And while the regime still tries to present a powerful
front, plans are being made deep inside the Pentagon.
The US is about to unleash something
so big that it will end the Iran war.
This is the Final Blow – powerful, precise, and designed
specifically to strip away every last piece of leverage that Iran’s regime has left.
We’ve
been seeing the buildup to this over the last few weeks.
On March 28, the 31st Marine Expeditionary
Unit, or MEU, accompanying the USS Tripoli and its small fleet of amphibious warships, finally
arrived in the Persian Gulf.
Soon, they will be joined by the prestigious 82nd Airborne Division,
along with another Marine Expeditionary Unit – the 11th, which has deployed to the Persian Gulf
by way of California.
This is a build-up of manpower that Iran never saw coming, and it
will soon mean that the US has around 5,000 Marines and around 3,000 paratroopers reportedly
joining the approximately 50,000 personnel that it has stationed in the Middle East.
The stage is
being set.
The Pentagon is preparing to deliver its final blow.
As we speak, the Pentagon is
simply waiting.
It has ƒplanned “weeks of ground operations,” The Independent reported on March 29,
and it’s believed by some that what the US has coming could take a couple of months to execute.
There are rumors about what the Final Blow might include.
Raids by special forces troops are
being considered, as are attacks on key Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz conducted by fthe
MEUs and paratroopers we’ve already mentioned.
The Independent says that the Pentagon’s plans
stop short of a full-blown ground invasion of the Iranian mainland, and that’s indicated by
the relatively limited number of Marines and paratroopers being sent to the Persian Gulf.
US President Donald Trump is also taking his time about making a decision, as he and his
administration hope that Iran will capitulate before boots on the ground become necessary.
We see that in comments made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on March 27, as he said,
“We can achieve all of our objectives without ground troops, but we are always going to
be prepared to give the president maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust to
contingencies, should they emerge.
” How true that is remains to be seen as Iran tries to bed in
and weather the storm of Operation Epic Fury.
As for the US, this is a key juncture, and the
Trump administration is sending every message that it can to Iran that it’s willing to move Operation
Epic Fury into a new phase.
MEUs and paratroopers are en route or already arriving.
And there are
even more signs that the US is getting ready to launch the ground operation that it never thought
it would need.
One of those signs is that F-35Cs are being moved into position.
That’s according
to The War Zone, which reported on March 24 that land-based Marine Corps F-35Cs are moving to the
Persian Gulf region to provide support for the Marines who are arriving or already in the region.
Those fifth-generation fighter jets have been moved to RAF Lakenheath in the U.
K.
, which signals
that the US is getting ready for the first land-based deployment of its stealth fighter since
the launch of Operation Epic Fury.
F-35s have been used plenty of times before in this operation,
of course.
But up until this point, they’ve flown from aircraft carriers to conduct the precise
strikes that often set up the aerial bombardment of other targets in mainland Iran.
This is
different.
What we’re seeing here is a buildup of F-35 airpower at a base that is well outside of
the range of even Iran’s best ballistic missiles, which tells us that the US is planning an
operation that requires repeated strikes by jets that can return to a safe base in the immediate
aftermath.
This is the US bedding in for the multi-week or multi-month campaign that The
Independent mentions.
The wind-up before the Final Blow that could end everything is delivered right
to the regime’s jaw.
We see the build-up.
But the question still remains – what will that Final Blow
actually look like? The Pentagon is keeping its lips tightly sealed, as you would expect.
Secrecy
is paramount.
If the US tells us exactly what it intends to do, Iran’s military will have time
to respond and prepare.
However, there are plenty of signals about what the Final Blow might look
like, and they start with a small patch of land that everybody expects the US to hit: Kharg
Island.
About a third of the size of Manhattan and located in the Persian Gulf just a few miles
away from the Iranian coast, Kharg Island is everything to Iran’s regime.
It’s the jewel in the
regime’s crown, as it serves as a key oil hub that allows Iran to ship its oil to other nations,
thus keeping billions of dollars every year pumping into the Iranian economy.
We’ll be coming
back to all of that soon, but the key here is that Kharg Island is the ultimate goal for the US,
whether that means a straight takeover of the island’s facilities or the use of that island as a
lever against Iran.
However, the US has a Kharg Island problem.
If it’s intending to land troops
on that island, it needs to find a way to get to it first, and that isn’t the easiest proposition
in the world.
The reason is that Kharg Island lies beyond the Strait of Hormuz, inside the Persian
Gulf.
And adding to that problem is that there is no point, beyond the economic, of taking Kharg
Island if the US isn’t first able to gain control over that vital waterway.
So, it’s clear
that the final blow isn’t going to be as simple as land Marines and paratroopers on Kharg Island,
take the oil infrastructure, and call it a job well done.
More setup work has to be done first,
and that work involves several other islands that the US may have to take with its ground forces
to set up what it has planned for Kharg.
Before getting to that, there’s the reason the Strait of
Hormuz matters at all to consider.
The words, “The strait is the only maritime passage out of the
Gulf,” published by The Guardian on March 16, tell you almost all that you need to know.
The Strait
of Hormuz is a vital passage for merchant ships carrying oil and liquefied natural gas to and from
countries in the Persian Gulf region.
Beyond Iran, which has control over the strait and its pair of
two-mile-wide shipping lanes, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar all rely on this single
waterway for their water-bound trade.
At just 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, the
Strait of Hormuz is relatively easy to patrol for Iran, and it is a key point of leverage for Iran.
About 20% of the entire world’s supply of oil and liquified natural gas flows through this strait
every year, and Iran has been taking advantage of that fact with a blockade using drones, anti-ship
missiles, and fast boats that make it practically impossible for merchant ships to sail through
the strait.
Iran knows that whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz also controls the flow of money
in the Persian Gulf region.
The US knows it, too, and it also knows that Iran’s control over
the waterway puts its plans for Kharg Island in jeopardy.
After all, any MEU that attempts to land
on Kharg Island first has to transit the strait, and that’s easier said than done, given Iran’s
asymmetric and often lethal blockade of the waterway.
Iran is taking advantage of its position
as best as it can.
According to CNN, one of Iran’s key demands for the end of Operation Epic Fury is
the recognition of Iran’s total sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
That would make the strait a
source of billions of dollars every year for Iran, in addition to giving it even more leverage
over the other Gulf nations that rely on the waterway.
Even as we speak, Iran is charging
merchant ships massive tolls running as high as $2 million for safe passage through the Strait
of Hormuz, reinforcing its ability to control the strait.
For the US to deliver the Final
Blow to Kharg Island, something first has to be done about Iran’s control over the Strait of
Hormuz.
And there just so happen to be other islands that are part of the equation that the
US may target before it makes its move on Kharg with its MEUs and paratroopers.
That alone changes
everything for Iran.
But before we dive deeper, this is a quick reminder that you’re watching
The Military Show.
If you haven’t subscribed yet, now is the perfect time to hit the button.
Lying
within the Strait of Hormuz are several islands that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
or IRGC, has militarized to extend Iran’s control over the whole region.
So, the starting point of
America’s Final Blow against Iran becomes very simple.
Take the IRGC’s militarized islands, and
you control the Strait of Hormuz.
And with that control comes the ability to halt Iran’s attacks
on merchant shipping, along with the ability to send MEUs through the strait, deep into the
Persian Gulf, and on to Kharg Island.
Iran isn’t going to make it easy.
It has the fast attack
boats we mentioned earlier.
Iran has autonomous vessels it can use to launch attacks, and it is
believed to be attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz to make passage even more difficult.
But
the US has to get through the Strait to get to Kharg.
Here’s where things get serious.
Of the
islands that the US may look to take with its MEUs and paratroops is Larak.
An established
strategic outpost for Iran, Larak is home to bunkers, several Iranian attack craft or drones
that the regime can use to attack merchant ships, along with radar systems that Iran uses to monitor
movements within the Strait of Hormuz.
Some of Iran’s fast boats are also believed to be launched
from this island, so taking it is a priority for the US as it prepares to deliver its Final Blow.
More details about Larak come from Jfeed.
It says that Iran maintains a Russian-supplied satellite
communications jamming system on this island, along with air defense systems, all of which are
protected by IRGC navy troops and the fast boats that we mentioned earlier.
Iran has militarized
the island to as much of a degree as it can manage for a piece of land that is so small.
For
the US, the taking of Larak sets the stage for everything else that it wants to deliver with its
Final Blow to Iran.
It’s inaccurate to say that when Larak falls, Iran’s posture in the Strait of
Hormuz immediately crumbles.
But it would weaken severely.
Losing some radars means that Iran can’t
track merchant ships or US Navy vessels entering the strait that efficiently anymore, which limits
attacks on both.
And MEU that takes and holds this island could also empty the bunkers, cripple
the fast boats, and turn what has so far been a key strategic asset for Iran’s Strait of Hormuz
blockade into one of the most important military nodes that the US can use to reopen that very
waterway.
But beyond all of that, the toppling of Larak serves another purpose: It paves the way for
the US to take other key islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
With Larak under control, the US
can turn its attention toward another island, named Abu Musa, along with islands that include
Hormuz, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb.
Not one of these islands on its own presents an
insurmountable threat to the US and its plans for Kharg Island.
But put them together, and you
get what has become known as Iran’s “arch defense” in the Strait of Hormuz.
Writing for the Canadian
Center of Science and Education, researchers Ma Yanzhe and Enayatollah Yazdani explained why
this arch of islands is so critical to Iran.
“A hypothetical curve connecting these islands
would further help to understand Iran’s strategic superiority in controlling the security,” the
researchers explained, and they noted that Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb are the keys
to Strait of Hormuz control.
That’s what the US would have to hit after Larak.
All three of these
islands sit in the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, and there just so happens to be a third party that
has an interest in them.
The United Arab Emirates has long disputed Iran’s control over this trio
of islands, which sets up the possibility that the US could work out a deal with the UAE,
perhaps for some sort of joint operation.
UAE support could be provided in exchange for the
US handing control over Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb to the UAE, thus weakening
Iran’s position in the Strait of Hormuz while strengthening the position of a US ally.
But
that would all be for the future.
In the context of the Final Blow that the Pentagon is preparing
to deliver to Iran, all of these islands in the Strait of Hormuz are dominoes.
The US needs them
all to fall, and its MEUs and paratroopers may be heading in to take each out one by one to open
up a clear pathway through the Strait that leads right to Kharg Island.
So, we see the gist of what
the plan might be.
How does the US execute on it? The goal here is to get to Kharg Island.
For
the US, taking that island may not even be a necessity.
If it can remove Iran’s influence from
the Strait of Hormuz by taking the other islands that we’ve discussed, the US might be able to
force Iran to the negotiating table.
After all, losing the islands means losing control over the
Strait of Hormuz.
The US could create its own blockade to prevent oil from leaving Kharg Island
if it topples Iran’s “arch defense,” which could mean that the seizure of Kharg Island wouldn’t
even be needed.
The 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and the billions of dollars in revenue that they
generate, could be controlled by the US Navy, preventing merchant ships from reaching Kharg
while allowing those that work with allies in the Persian Gulf to transit.
Iran would have lost many
of its attack options with the arch defense gone, too, which, when combined with a US presence,
makes the strait much safer.
In short, the US could restart the Strait of
Hormuz, leave Kharg Island untouched, and still bleed Iran dry of the money that it
needs to fund its defense against Operation Epic Fury.
That would make the Final Blow a slap in
the face after the US delivers body blow after body blow by taking Iran’s smaller islands.
As
for how the US would pull it all off, we gave you a clue earlier in the video when we mentioned
how the US is stationing F-35s at an RAF base.
Air superiority has already been achieved in Iran,
including over the Strait of Hormuz.
That’s why the US has been able to deploy A-10 Warthog
attack aircraft and Apache helicopters in the waterway.
Neither has much in the way of stealth
options, but they’re both on the attack against Iran’s fast boats and drones because Iran can’t do
much about them.
Add F-35s into the mix, and you get an aerial force that could bombard the likes
of Larak and Abu Musa ahead of America’s MEUs and paratroopers landing and taking control over the
islands.
The arch defense would crumble under the overwhelming airpower, and the ground forces
would go in to assert control, clear bunkers, and fortify the island ahead of the reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz and blockading Iran.
Kharg Island would fall through negotiation, not by
force.
That’s one option.
The other would have to be deployed if Iran digs its heels in and decides
not to capitulate, even as its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz is released.
That’s when
the situation would escalate even further.
With its MEUs controlling the arch defense islands,
the US would likely send more troops into the Middle East or call on the 50,000 soldiers it
has stationed in the region.
Their job would be to take Kharg Island by force, stripping away
what Trump has called the “crown jewel” of the Iranian regime in the process.
This would ruin the
regime’s ability to get its hands on war funds, and the US has already laid the groundwork
for a ground invasion of Kharg.
On March 13, the US unleashed a devastating series of
airstrikes that destroyed much of the military infrastructure on Kharg Island, including missile
storage bunkers, naval mine storage facilities, air defenses, and an airport control tower.
The US left Kharg’s oil facilities untouched, and Iran is trying to prepare for a ground assault
against the island.
According to CNN, Iran has been building up defenses again since March
13, having moved shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile systems to the island, along with laying
anti-armor and anti-personnel mines around Kharg’s coast.
Those booby traps could be a major problem
for America’s amphibious landing crafts and their forces.
As for the air defenses, Iran may be
banking on weathering the storm of F-35 assaults that those defenses aren’t designed to handle,
and would instead focus on attempting isolated strikes against A-10s and Apaches.
These aren’t
strong defenses.
But they do have the ability to cause casualties as the US takes Kharg Island.
That’s why the US would prefer the Final Blow to lead to Iran’s capitulation of Kharg Island,
and perhaps even the end of Operation Epic Fury, rather than a ground assault on the island.
The
arch defense is key.
Cripple that, and the Strait of Hormuz transforms from America’s problem to
Iran’s.
It would be a leverage turnaround, and the US hopes that Iran would be able to deal with
it.
As for Iran, it knows that the US is winding up, even if it doesn’t know precisely what the
US plans to do.
We see that in its attempts to reinforce Kharg Island’s shattered defenses, and
the Speaker of the country’s parliament, Bagher Ghalibaf, has outright declared that the regime
believes something is coming.
“Iran’s enemies, with the support of a country in the region, are
preparing an operation to occupy one of Iran’s islands,” Ghalibaf has claimed.
Iran’s problem is
that it doesn’t actually know which island.
Kharg seems the most obvious choice, and the US could
still invade it via an ally in the Persian Gulf, which would mean it bypasses the Strait of Hormuz
and the arch defense in the process.
But that doesn’t solve the problem of Iran’s leverage in
the waterway.
The approach that we’ve outlined in this video could still in theory involve allies,
especially the UAE, due to its disputes with Iran over several of the arch defense islands.
And it
would set the stage for the Final Blow on Kharg to be delivered at the negotiating table or by
direct force.
Whichever option Iran chooses, it loses.
And that’s precisely the position in
which the US wants to put Iran.
There is a lot more to know about America’s potential plans
for Kharg Island, and especially about the 82nd Airborne Division that it is sending Iran’s way.
We published a video covering how the US could change the Strait of Hormuz forever with this
division, so check it out if you want to dive deeper into the Kharg Island challenge.
And if you enjoyed this video, make sure you subscribe to The Military Show so you don’t
miss any of our analysis of Operation Epic Fury.
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