Okay, so the United States struck Iran, targeted the nuclear facilities, destroyed them, and then America agreed to a ceasefire.
And right when that ceasefire was declared, do you know what the Iranian president did? He appeared on national television and described it, and I want you to remember this exact phrase, a major victory.
And then the supreme leader of Iran stands up and says, “The American attacks achieved nothing meaningful.
” He says America gained nothing at all.
He says Iran will never surrender.
Now you are sitting at home and you are thinking, “Hold on a second.
You just got bombed.
Your nuclear facilities are gone.
Millions of your own citizens are leaving your cities and you are calling this a victory.
” Here is the reality.
They might actually be correct.
Today I want to guide you through exactly why step by step.
Because if you think America came out ahead in this ceasefire, I am going to show you something that will seriously change your perspective.
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I have spent months researching what is coming between 2026 and 2030.
And I put everything into an ebook called The Next Global Shift.
How to stay ahead of economic collapse and war, the economies, the conflicts, the decisions you need to make.
If you want my ebook link in the description, first let us step back.
Because to understand why Iran may have already won, you need to understand what Iran’s real strategy is.
Iran does not have a military anywhere near America’s.
They know they cannot fight the United States in a direct head-to-head war and come out on top.
So instead, for decades, Iran created something called the axis of resistance.
What is that? It is a network of allies spread across the entire Middle East.
Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, armed groups in Iraq, and for a long time, the Assad government in Syria.
The concept is very simple.
You cannot hit America directly because America is too powerful.
But what you can do is pressure them everywhere at once so they can never get comfortable, never shift away, never fully focus their attention somewhere else like Russia or China.
Iran’s objective was never to defeat America on a battlefield.
Iran’s objective is to keep America stuck, keep America bleeding slowly, keep America spending money and military attention in the Middle East forever.
That is the strategy.
So now let us ask ourselves honestly, did this ceasefire help Iran play that strategy or did it stop it? June 2025 is where everything escalates.
On June 13th, 2025, Israel begins what they call operation rising lion.
They deploy over 200 fighter jets, and that is not a small number.
Flying nearly 25,000 Sordis over 12 days.
They strike more than 100 Iranian facilities, nuclear sites, military sites.
They eliminate key scientists and key commanders.
From Israel’s perspective, this is the moment they have been preparing for decades.
Iran responds with something they call Operation True Promise 3.
And here is where it becomes interesting.
Iran launches roughly 550 ballistic missiles and around 1,000 drones at Israel in 12 days.
That is a staggering number of weapons.
About 90% are intercepted.
So Israel’s defenses largely hold.
But here is the part that does not get enough attention.
31 missiles got through.
They hit a power station, an oil refinery in Hifa, and a university.
28 Israelis are killed.
almost all of them civilians.
Over 3,000 are injured and more than 9,000 people are displaced.
On the Iranian side, the damage is far worse.
Between roughly 160 and 190 Iranians are killed by Israeli strikes.
Nearly 5,000 injured.
And here is a detail that should really stay with you.
About 9 million people fled Thran and other major cities heading toward the northern provinces.
9 million people just running.
Can you picture that? Then on June 22nd, 3 days before the ceasefire, the United States enters the war directly.
American planes drop bunker buster bombs on Natans, Fordau, and Isvahan.
These are Iran’s crown jewels, the most important nuclear facilities they have.
The Institute for the Study of War later concludes that those strikes severely reduced Iran’s nuclear enrichment capability for the foreseeable future.
So by the time the ceasefire arrives, Iran has lost nuclear facilities, key commanders, and roughly half of its entire ballistic missile stockpile either launched at Israel or destroyed by Israeli strikes.
That sounds like a catastrophic loss, right? Keep that number in the back of your mind because we are coming back to it.
Now, here is where it gets truly remarkable because the ceasefire itself is almost unbelievable.
On June 23rd, Iran launches 14 missiles at Aludade Air Base in Qatar, one of the most important American bases in the entire Middle East.
No one is killed.
And do you know what Trump does? He goes on social media and thanks Iran for the very weak response.
He basically signals, “All right, let us make a deal.
” That same evening, Trump announces a ceasefire brokered through Qatar.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Arachi, comes out immediately and says, “Hold on.
There is no formal agreement.
” But he says Iran will stop attacking if Israel stops by 4:00 a.
m.
Thran time.
Not exactly a surrender.
The next morning, the ceasefire almost falls apart completely.
Iran keeps firing missiles at Beersa in northern Israel.
Iran says Israeli strikes are still continuing on their side.
And Israel is reportedly preparing a massive retaliatory strike in response.
And here is a single detail that tells you everything about who had leverage in this situation.
Trump reportedly pressures Netanyahu to cancel that major strike.
Israel ends up hitting only one radar site near Thran, a fraction of what they had planned.
America, the most powerful country on Earth, talks Israel down from its own retaliation.
And then it holds and every single side immediately declares victory.
Trump says victory for everyone.
Netanyahu calls it a historic victory that will stand for generations.
Peskian, the Iranian president says great victory.
And Kame says America gained nothing.
So who is actually telling the truth here? Here is what I want you to understand.
Winning a war is not just about who loses more soldiers or whose buildings get destroyed more.
That is not how it works in the modern world.
Number one, the regime survived and survival is the entire game for Iran.
Israel and America went in with an explicit goal.
Destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, devastate its military.
They did serious damage.
No question about that.
But the Islamic Republic of Iran is still standing.
Kam is still in charge.
The government did not collapse.
And from a Shia perspective, a culture that has always defined itself as the persecuted minority willing to sacrifice and endure.
Surviving a direct attack from the world’s most powerful military and its strongest ally is not spin.
That is victory.
That is genuinely how they understand the world.
Number two, Iran flipped the nuclear oversight narrative on its head.
After the ceasefire, Iran’s parliament votes to end all cooperation with the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Iran signals it may leave the nuclear non-prololiferation treaty entirely.
Think about what that means.
Iran entered this conflict with a damaged nuclear program, and it exits the conflict with less international oversight than it had before.
In the long run, how is that a loss for Iran’s nuclear ambitions? Number three, look at what happened to the American story of leaving the Middle East.
For years, Washington talked about pivoting away from the region, focusing on China, reducing its footprint.
That idea is gone.
By 2024, the United States already had more than 10,000 troops spread across Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and beyond, plus two aircraft carrier groups.
Does that look like a country leaving the region? By 2025 and into 2026, America is more deeply entrenched there than ever.
More troops, more carriers, presidential visits, highstakes diplomacy.
America is stuck.
And that is exactly what Iran’s strategy was designed to achieve.
But here is the part that really settles the argument because the 12-day war was just act one.
By early 2026, the United States and Israel are openly at war with Iran.
And Iran plays its most powerful card, the Straight of Hormuz.
What is the Straight of Hormuz? It is a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf, and about 20% of all the oil consumed in the entire world flows through it every single day, plus about 20% of the world’s liqufied natural gas.
In early 2026, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declares it closed.
They threaten to set any vessel attempting passage ablaze.
At least five tankers are damaged, two people killed, and about 150 ships stranded.
Effectively, more than 90% of normal oil and refined product flows are blocked.
What happens to oil prices? They soar past $100 a barrel.
Some analysts see them reaching 150 if the closure holds.
By April 5th, 2026, Brent crude is around $110 and US crude around $113.
Every American driver feels this at the gas pump.
The International Energy Agency, whose entire job is stabilizing global oil markets, has to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency crude reserves just to try to slow the bleeding.
And here is the part I really want you to sit with.
The United States sends a 15point ceasefire proposal to Iran through Pakistan as a go-between.
The proposal asks Iran to accept limits on its nuclear program, restrictions on its missiles, and guarantees free passage through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for some sanctions relief.
Iran rejects it outright and sends back a counter proposal demanding that the United States recognize Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and pay war reparations.
Now you tell me who holds the leverage in that negotiation.
I know what you are thinking right now.
You are thinking but Iran lost so much.
Their nuclear program is badly damaged.
Roughly half their ballistic missile stockpile is gone.
Their proxy network Hamas devastated in Gaza.
Hezbollah hit hard in Lebanon.
Assad’s Syria gutted since 2023.
Thousands of Iranians are dead.
You are right.
All of that is true and it matters.
But here is what you have to weigh against it.
Six American soldiers are killed in the 2026 war.
Oil is trading above $100 a barrel, which hits the wallets of every retired American on a fixed income, every family at the pump.
The United States is now deploying thousands of Marines and paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division into the region on top of the forces already there.
And America entered all of this with the stated goal of eliminating Iran as a strategic threat.
Iran is still there, still fighting, still holding the key to the world’s most important oil choke point.
And here is the last thing I want you to think about.
The next time a government somewhere in the world is considering standing up to the United States, they will look at what happened here.
They will see that Iran took the full force of American and Israeli air power and did not fall.
That story does not disappear.
It spreads.
Winning and losing in geopolitics is not like a football game.
There is no final buzzer.
There is no trophy handed out at the end.
The question you have to ask is this.
Whose long-term goals were advanced? and whose were set back.
America went in wanting to end Iran’s nuclear threat.
The sites are damaged, but Iran now has less international nuclear oversight than before.
America wanted to stabilize the region.
Instead, it is more entangled than it has been in years.
America wanted oil prices down, but right now, oil is around $110 a barrel, and American families are paying for it.
Iran wanted to survive a direct confrontation with the most powerful military on earth.
It survived.
Iran wanted to keep America stuck in the Middle East.
America is more stuck than before.
Iran wanted to show the world that simply being stronger does not mean you automatically win.
That message has been sent.
Now, I am not saying this is over.
The war is still ongoing.
There are very real questions about whether the Iranian economy and its people can absorb the long-term damage, whether the axis of resistance can rebuild, whether the regime itself can hold together under the pressure.
But the ceasefire, America accepting the terms Iran is now demanding in exchange for peace, the oil prices hitting American households right now, that does not look like the picture of a country that lost.
This is the video today.
If you want my ebook, link in the description.
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