In the world’s most dangerous waterway, Hormuz, that breaking point everyone thought was impossible has finally happened.
The US has sent something massive to open this strategic straight.
Two guided missile destroyers, the USS Frankie Peterson Jr.
and the USS Michael Murphy passed through Hormuz on April 11th.
But these ships are just the tip of the iceberg.
Because right behind these massive naval assets come the underwater drones that the US has sent to Hormuz.
Sentcom has officially announced the launch of a mine clearing operation.
However, this transit was far from quiet.

As soon as the US warships entered the straight, they were swiftly tracked by Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval units and faced an open challenge with this is the final warning announcements over the radio.
While the US side proceeded on its route, stating that they were complying with international law and ceasefire rules, it was alleged that an Iranian directed drone was destroyed by US forces at the peak of the tension.
Moreover, while the Tehran administration officially denied the transit and claimed the ships had turned back upon receiving the warning, it declared to the entire world that it would respond much more harshly to military units in the straight from now on.
The timing of this action-packed encounter in Hormuz, however, is even more noteworthy.
After exactly 21 hours of talks in Pakistan, the parties failed to reach a definitive agreement.
US Vice President JD Vance accusing Iran of making a huge mistake, actually gave important signals about what might be happening behind the scenes.
In other words, Washington might be preparing to make its final move with warships and underwater drones to completely unlock Hormuz.
However, right beneath these massive tankers and underwater vehicles, there is a much more insidious danger waiting silently in the dark.
The rogue naval mines irregularly laid by Iran, drifting with the currents, and now with completely unknown locations, are lying in weight to trigger a massive catastrophe at any moment.
They were laid quickly and irregularly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy using small boats.
What’s more, a significant portion of these mines were caught in the Gulf’s strong bottom currents and drifted miles away from their original positions.
Mored contact mines, magnetic/acoustic triggered mines, and drifting mines create an almost invisible and deadly labyrinth in the straight.
Essentially, Iran has completely lost the ability to control the monster it created.
The landscape has become completely chaotic.

But the fact that two lethal Arley Burkeclass guided missile destroyers, the USS Frank E.Peterson Jr.and the USS Michael Murphy, bravely navigated this dangerous route and returned shows that there is still a glimmer of hope in the region.
As part of this critical mission, the US likely didn’t choose these naval assets at random to unlock the strait.
Because these ships were not ordinary mine hunters, they were floating fortresses equipped with the world’s most advanced Eegis combat systems capable of scanning hundreds of miles with their radar networks.
Their mission was far greater than a simple cleanup.
They were there to establish a new safe transit route in Hormuz and to prepare the conditions for that safe corridor that will escort merchant ships.
The effects of having these missile ships in the straight are already being seen because three massive super tankers became the first examples to cross Hormuz following the ceasefire process, gliding through the Gulf’s dangerous waters.
As you can see, the pieces in the straight are shifting significantly and those rusty locks of the global oil trade might finally be opened one by one.
But to say this, Hormuz needs to be clean enough to be brought up to conditions fully suitable for international logistics.
The real cleanup work, however, will be done by the high-tech unmanned underwater vehicles, namely autonomous drones, which will be deployed into the waters in the coming days.
So, where is this process heading? In the coming days, will we be able to see a picture of Hormuz completely cleared of mines and a reliable narrow straight route that oil ships can complete in about 7 hours? Washington has striking plans regarding this.
US President Donald Trump on the other hand used very sharp language suggesting that the real move to fully unlock Hormuz might be a different plan entirely by saying we will open that straight even if we don’t use it because we didn’t get help from NATO in the world.
Trump declared to the whole world just how ready America is for unilateral use of force.
Meaning America’s primary move might not be limited to just sending warships and underwater drones to Hormuz.
The real move could come from a completely different doctrine.
One that even Iran was caught off guard by which will lock down the entire region and completely overturn the chessboard.
Because right after the collapse of the talks, Donald Trump signaled a chilling doctrine via his personal social media account.
The name of this doctrine has been reflected in the press by media sources as the out blockade.

If Iran refuses to fully and safely open the straight, which it mined and lost control over, to international trade, the US Navy could establish its own blockade.
This is not just about opening a transit corridor.
It means bringing all the entrances and exits of Hormuz directly under the initiative of the American Navy.
So, the US plans to establish a structure where it will completely zero out Iran’s say over maritime traffic and personally decide which ship can pass and which cannot.
This scenario has long ceased to be just an issue between Iran and the US.
The straight of Hormuz is the single artery through which roughly 20% of the global oil supply must necessarily pass every day.
The clogging of this artery or turning who controls it into a war has the potential to instantly trigger a massive energy crisis all over the world from Europe to Asia.
Europe’s already fragile industry could completely fall under the influence of such a shock wave.
Well then, behind the scenes of all these dangerous dynamics, how will this out blockade operation of Trump shape up on the ground? Currently, the US fifth fleet is on standby in the region under a state of alert.
The Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which the USS Frank Peterson Jr.
is also attached to, holds massive firepower in and around the Persian Gulf.
If the war flares up again, F-35s and F/ A18 taking off from this aircraft carrier will establish an impenetrable air umbrella over the straight.
On the sea surface, cruisers and Arley Burke class destroyers will build a wall of steel that will physically close off the entrance to the straight.
Turn your eyes for a moment beyond this massive steel wall to that critical process ahead of us.
The first and strongest move on Washington’s table will be to open a safe lane in that critical 21-m narrowing section of the straight with almost a surgical operation.
To neutralize this insidious threat, lethal knifeish autonomous underwater drones and mine warfare assets just beneath the water could silently advance to build an invisible corridor for massive ships.
If this first phase is successful, the first tanker convoys that will relieve the world market will advance under the shadow of the Abraham Lincoln strike group and straight traffic could return to normal by 40%.
However, if Iran’s uncompromising attitude continues, that terrifying out blockade phase indicated by Trump could surface in all its ruthlessness.
additional Arley Burke destroyers, Ticeroga class cruisers, and P8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft tearing through the sky to be dispatched to the region.
All these powerful military assets could turn the entrances and exits of Hormuz into insurmountable checkpoints.
Right at that moment, the US Navy could put a plan on the field that would establish a lockdown mechanism capable of effectively choking off 70% of Iran’s daily oil exports by stopping, searching, and if necessary, blocking any ship it deems suspicious.
If things get even darker on the chessboard of the Middle East, and by May, Iran completely violates the ceasefire and continues its attacks, Washington will not shoulder this massive burden alone.
Receiving support from the logistical bases of the Gulf States, the US with the sudden participation of the British ship RFA Cardigan Bay and French tripartite class mine hunters could transform Hormuz into the operation center of a large-scale international coalition.
With the arrival of NATO’s standing mine countermeasures groups and Italian Getta class ships to this apocalyptic scene, an uninterrupted air and sea patrol ring, also supported by cyber operations, might be completed.
Even though Europe states that its naval assets will participate in mine clearing after the war has completely ended, Hormuz continuing to stay closed will likely affect the continent very seriously in terms of energy.
Furthermore, Trump’s pressures on Europe and his rhetoric for them to finally participate in solving the problem could also likely impact the EU’s strategic stance on this issue.
At the end of all these moves, either the safe corridor patiently opened by autonomous devices will let the world economy breathe, or the drifting mines lying in weight in the dark waters of the Gulf will drag the region into an irreversible ring of fire.
However, the risks carried by this potentially planned operation are literally lethal.
Iran has in its possession thousands of suicide drones and hundreds of shore deployed anti-hship ballistic missiles capable of threatening American ships in the narrow and shallow waters of the Persian Gulf.
This asymmetric warfare doctrine which the revolutionary guards have been preparing for years is built precisely on targeting massive warships in such narrow straits.
The narrowest point of Hormuz is only 21 mi wide and this distance is practically ground zero for modern missiles.
While American warships are passing through this corridor or enforcing the blockade, they may have to react within seconds to sudden missile salvos launched from the shore.
The possibility of any American warship being hit or the scenario of it being damaged by an unmanned boat could turn the crisis from a regional war into a global apocalypse.
The thrron administration with its uncompromising attitude displayed at the negotiation table is actually giving the message that it is ready to take this risk.
Because at a table where massive issues like nuclear program restrictions, economic sanctions, and the future of the regime are discussed, the only real physical and ruthless trump card in their hands is the straight of Hormuz.
Iran knows very well that letting go of this trump card would mean paving the way for its own end.
Even though there is no mass mobilization to solve the Hormuz crisis right now, this difficult situation Iran has fallen into and the shaking of the markets are among the most important elements shaping future scenarios.
Because the European wing might not be able to sustain the stance of neutrality it would maintain until the end of the war due to energy crisis.
Oil has skyrocketed to $18 and is still climbing.
Insurance premiums have multiplied.
Ship owners are paying a mine risk premium and most tankers are still avoiding taking the risk.
Global supply chains are shaking.
But the real impact is much deeper than this.
Not just Europe.
In fact, scenarios regarding Hormuz being closed are taking the entire global arena under their influence.
The Asian geography in particular is one of the parties suffering the pains of Iran’s trump card of closing the strait.
Energy giants like China, Japan, South Korea, India.
All these countries get the majority of their oil imports through Hormuz.
The clogging of the strait directly hits the industrial production of these countries.
China’s factories are slowing down.
Japan’s refineries are melting their stocks.
South Korea’s prochemical sector is looking for alternative sources.
Europe’s LNG and oil supply lines are dependent on the same corridor.
There are alternative routes.
The Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope are among them, but these routes multiply costs.
The Cape of Good Hope route is 10 days of extra travel with double the fuel cost.
Suez, on the other hand, is already at the limit of its capacity and is experiencing its own security problems with the Houthi threat.
This crisis isn’t just about oil.
Natural gas, prochemical products, fertilizer, and plastic raw materials also pass through this corridor.
When Hormuz is clogged, it’s not just the price of gasoline that goes up.
Every sector from food to electronics, from agriculture to construction is affected.
Global inflation was already high.
The Hormuz crisis turns this into a structural problem.
Developing countries are taking the heaviest blow.
Economies dependent on energy imports are being dragged into a debt crisis.
And if completely clearing the straight of mines will take months, which even the most optimistic estimates say it will.
This economic hemorrhage does not look like it will stop in the short term, then there’s the interesting part.
This risky strategy built upon mining Hormuz and putting the straight at risk is also hitting Iran’s own economy.
Its oil exports pass through Hormuz and its own mines are clogging its own source of income.
Iran, which exported 1.
5 million barrels a day before the war, is now unable to use the vast majority of this capacity.
There is also a strategic dimension to this crisis.
The clogging of Hormuz fundamentally changed the global energy security debate.
The price of being so dependent on a single strait is now before everyone’s eyes.
Countries have begun to pivot towards alternative energy sources and routes.
This process is costly in the short term, but in the long run, it could reduce the strategic importance of Hormuz.
Iran’s strategy of using the straight as a trump card is creating a boomerang effect precisely for this reason.
The longer it keeps the straight closed, the faster the world searches for alternatives.
And Iran’s only real Trump card permanently loses value.
And this is where the greatest irony of asymmetric warfare begins.
If the weapon you lay to harm your enemy also hits you in peace time, it’s not a strategy, it’s a mistake.
Right in the shadow of this massive strategic mistake, there is a single global actor silently and with great satisfaction watching all this chaos and even coming out as the most profitable from this crisis.
Russia.
While the Tehran administration falls into the pit it dug itself, losing both its economy and its geopolitical credibility, Moscow is using the panic atmosphere created by this asymmetric war almost like a life preserver.
Crushed under Western sanctions and having spent billions of dollars to build a massive shadow fleet to sustain its energy exports, Russia might be experiencing its golden age thanks to the congestion in Hormuz.
Barrel prices exceeding $18 and the supply panic in global markets have effectively trashed the price cap application the West placed on Russian oil.
European and Asian markets are forced to bend or ignore sanctions out of necessity to keep their industries afloat and satisfy their energy hunger.
On the other hand, the billions of dollars of hot money flowing into the Kremlin’s coffers is well on its way to redirecting the country’s military-industrial complex.
But Russia’s gain in this crisis is not just an instantaneous spike in oil prices.
There is a much deeper long-term geopolitical dimension to the matter that will redraw the global map.
The straight of Hormuz turning into an unreliable death trap and the alternative routes multiplying costs might be working to Moscow’s advantage in a different sense because this crisis might suddenly be turning the Northern Seaw route project which Russia has invested trillions of rubles into for years into one of the world’s most attractive and mandatory alternatives.
This massive corridor connecting Asia and Europe via the Arctic Ocean is on an uninterrupted transit line entirely independent of the Middle East’s rogue mines and suicide drones.
This situation might not only earn Moscow massive transit fees from the paths it opens with nuclear ice breakers.
Putin by taking advantage of this could acquire very different and large financial resources for his war in Ukraine.
This is exactly how the Kremlin could benefit from Europe failing to meet with the US on a common step regarding the resolution of the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Of course, there’s also the military dimension to this.
The Russians got the chance to run tests on how much American military capacity can be stretched globally.
The Kremlin together with Beijing is constantly monitoring all naval and air force elements and infantry troop movements in the Middle East.
Also, the fact that a significant portion of the US’s deterrence in the Pacific and Europe is obligatorily located in a narrow and dangerous Gulf seriously expands Russia’s maneuvering room in other conflict zones.
Actually, this dilemma works to the advantage of both Moscow and Beijing.
They are observing the US’s military capabilities in the Middle East, and in a potential clash situation, these notes could pose a massive risk factor.
Looking at this whole picture from a wide angle, it is revealed that this suicide strategy, which Iran views as its own struggle for existence and started with the hope of a grand asymmetric victory, is actually part of a much bigger game.
While Thran thinks it’s defying the US and locking down the global system at the cost of cutting its own lifeline, it is actually merely taking on the role of an apparatus that strengthens Moscow’s hand.
While the mines it laid in its own sea drag Iran into an irreversible economic collapse in the international arena, the plans of Moscow and Beijing who watched this deadly game with great cold-bloodedness are operating differently.
Therefore, the support that might come from the EU or different geographies for this critical operation, the US started to open hormuz is critical in terms of shifting the dynamics in the region and making sea lanes reliable again.
In short, it seems essential that a joint international effort can be made so that the straight of Hormuz threats don’t stop being solely in the hands of the Thran regime and turn into a trump card that Moscow and Beijing can use.
So, what do you guys think about this issue? We are waiting for your comments.
TGN presented.
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