All of this points to a single truth in military literature.

The concept of traditional warfare is dead.

As Ukrainian commander-in-chief Alexander Sirski has clearly stated, the nature of war has undergone a fundamental evolution.

There are no longer fixed front lines drawn with a ruler on a map filled with soldiers.

Trench warfare has given way to a constantly shifting fluid web of infiltration and death.

Ukrainian forces infiltration zones extend as far as 10 km behind what Russia calls its controlled front line.

In the past, capturing a position and holding it for days was considered a success.

Today, however, staying stationary in a position for more than 24 hours means becoming an immediate target for a kamicazi drone or a precision artillery shell from the sky.

Drones are in the sky 24/7.

Fields, intersections, and trails are constantly monitored.

An armored vehicle is detected and destroyed kilometers away before it can even approach the front lines.

War has transformed into a technological race, not about who controls the most territory on the map, but about who can see farther and strike first.

Russia’s traditional military mindset has failed to adapt to this new reality.

Garasimov is still trying to push tank columns across open terrain and apply breakthrough tactics left over from World War II.

The result is a statistical route.

This is precisely where we need to look at the numbers.

During the nearly 2-year period from February 2024, the war’s hottest phase to January 2026, Russian forces managed to advance only 50 km along the Abdka Pakovsk axis.

Let’s break this down mathematically.

Russia advanced an average of just 70 m per day in exchange for tens of thousands of casualties and hundreds of billions of dollars in equipment.

That’s not even a walking distance, it’s a crawling distance.

Despite all this destruction since early 2022, Russia has managed to seize control of just an additional 1.

5% of Ukraine’s total territory.

The active defense strategy implemented by Cerski succeeded in breaking up Russian attack formations before they even formed while they were still in their assembly areas.

Russia is expending immense energy.

It is crashing into a wall with tremendous momentum.

The only thing it gains in return is a few square kilmters of mined terrain reduced to rubble.

But the cost of this slowdown to Russia cannot be measured solely in lost tanks.

The real disaster lies in the human resources consumed by this senseless advance.

All these command errors, logistical disasters, and tactical blindness come at a final cost.

And it is not Putin or his generals who are paying this cost.

This cost is being deducted directly from the demographic future of the Russian people.

Today, Russia can no longer replace its losses on the battlefield.

This is not an estimate.

It is an official breaking point.

A historic threshold was crossed in January 2026.

The Russian military’s casualty rate officially surpassed the rate of new recruits.

That month, the system managed to recruit only 22,000 new soldiers.

In contrast, the number of dead and seriously wounded on the front lines was recorded as 30,618.

The situation was no different in December 2025.

The system is now bleeding and there is no bandage left to stop the bleeding.

We need to understand what this means for the Kremlin.

In those early days of the war, when the patriotism wind was blowing, it was easy to find 40 to 50,000 volunteers a month.

Today, however, despite offering astronomical sums, the state cannot even find 30,000 per month.

Since 2022, one-time signing bonuses for those heading to the front have increased by a full 15 to 20 times.

Just for these bonuses and salaries, 2 trillion rubles vanished from the budget in the first half of 2025.

But the economy can only hold out so long.

In regions like Samara, Tatarstan and Mariel, budgets have been completely depleted.

Recruitment bonuses were suddenly slashed from 3.6 million rubles to 400,000 rubles.

Running out of money means the flow of soldiers stops.

Because the war no longer holds any ideological appeal, this is nothing but a deadly trade.

Even more alarming is the profile of those who accept this money and head to the front lines.

According to MediaZona’s detailed mortality analysis, the average age of Russian soldiers killed in 2025 has risen to an astonishing level.

The age group with the highest mortality rate on the front lines is between 46 and 52 years old.

This is the tragedy of people selling their lives to the state out of economic desperation.

While the elite youth of Moscow and St.

Petersburg sit in cafes.

The full burden of the war has been placed on the shoulders of Russia’s poorest, most desperate ethnic minority regions such as Teiva and Briadia.

And when consuming his own people was no longer enough, Putin began looking for solutions abroad.

More than 18,000 foreign nationals from 128 different countries were deceived with lies about job offers, citizenship, or high salaries, and sent to the front lines.

More than 1,700 people from Africa alone were deceived with the lie of factory work, given weapons, and thrown into a death zone.

But the Kremlin’s real nightmare isn’t the dead or the wounded.

The real nightmare is those who are alive but have rebelled against this system.

According to estimates by military analysts, the number of deserters, those who have laid down their arms and fled, disobeyed orders, or gone into hiding in the Russian army has exceeded 70,000.

This figure represents 10% of the total forces deployed at the front.

One/tenth of an army is refusing to fight or to listen to its own officers.

This is not merely a military problem.

It is a direct collapse of morale, discipline, and authority.

Despite all these rational facts, the collapsing demographics, severed supply lines, and massive lies within the command structure, Russia will continue to attack.

Even if battlefield conditions have completely turned against him, Putin has no choice but to keep rolling out tanks.

Because in authoritarian regimes, internal legitimacy depends on a constant narrative of progress and greatness.

Standing still on the front lines is interpreted as weakness in the corridors of the Kremlin.

And weakness spells the end for a leader like Putin.

Putin’s greater Russia vision is careening toward a precipice at a speed of 70 m a day.

trapped within this systemic lie he created with his own hands.

For now, in the race for survival on the edge of that precipice, Ukraine holds the upper hand as the master of reason, technology, and initiative.

And that precipice is drawing near.

So, what do you think of this situation? Does the Kremlin have any chance of stopping this command crisis and the wave of desertions? Share your thoughts with us in the comments.

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