Nancy Guthrie Case: Investigator Speaks Out On DNA Bombshell.

I can say if they get a viable profile, genetic genealogology will definitely solve it and it will be solved within weeks.

Hey everybody, it’s Jackson Buhigh here with TMZ.

Today I am joined by Miss Cece Moore.

She is an expert genetic genealogologist and today she is here to talk to us about the Nancy Guthrie case.

Miss Moore, thank you so much for joining me.

Thanks for inviting me, of course.

Now, today marks um month number two, if you can believe that, uh since Nancy Guthri’s initial disappearance.

Um and there are a lot of questions revolving around evidence found at the scene relating to DNA.

Um being a genetic genealogologist expert yourself, can you provide us with some insight as to how we can leverage that DNA to find the suspect and what that process looks like? Well, when Nancy wasn’t found immediately, I really strongly believed that genetic genealogy would be the answer to this case like it has so many others.

But it for us to be able to help law enforcement identify these perpetrators or this perpetrator, we need to have a viable DNA profile and that is apparently the challenge in this case.

I find it really hard to believe that this person or persons didn’t leave DNA behind at the crime scene, but from my understanding so far, it doesn’t sound like they’ve been able to create a viable single profile of a unknown individual.

In this case, what I’ve heard is that there are mixtures and mixtures are certainly workable for genetic genealogy.

Many of my successful cases have involved mixtures, but there are simple mixtures and complex mixtures.

And this sounds like it’s a complex mixture, which means there are more than two people in it and very likely more than two unidentified individuals.

So, a simple mixture would be if there was NY’s DNA and one unknown male.

and then we could be pretty confident that that would be viable for genetic genealogy.

But if it is NY’s DNA and two or three unknown male profiles, it really depends who is the majority in that who whose DNA is the biggest proportion.

And if you have several unknown people in it, you wouldn’t know which person or persons are relevant to your case.

I also concern am concerned about contamination because if they’re working with a complex mixture that means it could have been taken off a surface, say a doorork knob that many people have touched or another surface in the home.

And it’s possible that none of those individuals are the perpetrator in this case.

And so it’s really disappointing because if if they were able to uh single out that DNA that of the person who took Nancy, then there’s no doubt in my mind he would be identified and relatively quickly through genetic genealogy.

And when you say, you know, complex mixtures uh usually involve more than two people.

Um, how long does it take to sort through those complex mixtures and identify the DNA that that belongs that that person belongs to? Well, it really depends on the proportions.

If there was one unidentified male in that mixture who had contributed 40% or more to it, then we could very quickly work with that.

The scientists I work with are incredible and I am pretty confident they would be able to what’s called deconvolute extract out that individual’s profile.

But if everyone that is of interest in that mixture has less than 40%, maybe there’s only 20% for the person of interest.

That is where we start really running into challenges.

And to my knowledge, there are not yet any techniques to create the type of profile that we need for genetic genealogy in that case.

So the type of profile we use is very different than what law enforcement uses traditionally.

We use what’s called a snip profile and it has hundreds of thousands of genetic markers across the genome.

And so the methods for decon convoluting a snip profile are very different than the methods for deconvoluting an STR profile shortand and repeat which is what law law enforcement has used for decades already.

And so they’ve made a lot of progress in that with those traditional profiles because they’ve been working with mixtures for literally decades.

And you very often run into mixtures in sexual assaults, in stabbings, or when you’re working with transfer DNA or what’s known commonly as touch DNA because you are detecting such small amounts of DNA and it’s really common for there to be more than one contributor.

But with SNIP profiles, we’ve only been working with law enforcement since 2018.

And so that’s really when the attention started being paid to what we’re capable of doing.

And then scientists became really interested in the idea of pushing our part of the science forward.

Before 2018, most people kind of rolled their eyes at us.

You know, they they were like, “Oh, they’re just doing genealogy or they’re just helping adopes.

” And so we’ve seen huge jumps forward in creating these SNIP profiles and the science behind that, but still we’re only not even eight years into that.

And so I am very confident that as time progresses, we will see better methods for dealing with these mixtures.

And I think that’s why the sheriff said, you know, it might take a year, right? That the technology doesn’t exist yet.

I’m sure there are multiple people that have pushed this up to the top of the priority list and are working as fast as they can to try to create a deconvolution method that could help in this case and many others.

And since 20 since 2018 uh in your career, have you seen a case like this? You know, obviously Nancy Guthrie, she lives in a very deserted environment, not a lot of cameras around.

It was pretty easy for the perpetrator or perpetrators to get away.

And it seems like DNA might be the key here to solving this case.

Have you seen a case hit such a dead end to where DNA opened the door to find that person whether it be 6 months to a year from when it was initially conducted? Oh, absolutely.

We are usually last resort with genetic genealogy.

It’s typically used after every other avenue of investigation has run cold.

Now, we’re starting to see agencies using it earlier and even in tandem with their traditional DNA profiles.

We saw that in the Coberger case, and we’ve certainly seen them attempt to do it in this case, but the majority of my cases have been cases that were extremely cold.

I’ve helped solve cases from before I was born.

And so, it’s not at all unusual for genetic genealogy to come in and be the key.

But for us to be able to help the the key to that is always that we have to have biological material to work with.

We can’t work with that traditional profile that law enforcement creates for their databases for COTUS and that is the one that is used in court.

And so a lot of uh cases have that, but if they don’t have the biological material available for us to go back to, then we can’t help because we have to reanalyze that from scratch using more advanced technology than had been used previously.

And what’s amazing in the last eight years is how fast we’ve seen that ability advance.

We used to need a fair amount of DNA on these cases and now we just need the tiniest amount even just some skin cells which is why we can use transfer DNA or touch DNA.

Uh when we first started doing this that was much more challenging but the scientists have rallied behind genetic genealogy now and I think that you know like I said this case may also help to fast forward some of those deconvolution methods.

I did hear recently that uh the sheriff or there was an insider who said that that that’s exactly what was happening that there was some new technique that was being pushed to you know be finished earlier because of this case and I strongly suspect that is a deconvolution software package perhaps by the company Estraa which is creating those packages uh to offer to law enforcement and to labs that are working with law enforcement.

And so I’m really hoping what they did is maybe they had it planned for uh later in the year or next year and they said,”You know what? Let’s push this up to the front of the line and get it done more quickly because of course, you know, the Guthri need answers, the community needs answers.

And if genetic genealogy can can get that profile to work with, you know, they will be the ones that provide answers in my opinion.

” You just mentioned briefly that genetic genealogy is usually the last card in the deck, if you will, once all other investigative options have been exhausted.

Um, does the fact that they pivoted to genetic genealogy so quickly in the investigation say anything grim to you? No, that’s actually great news and it’s exactly what I had been hoping to see since I helped solve the first active case using genetic genealogy way back in 2018.

It was something that everybody saw as a cold case technique because the Golden State Killer was the first, you know, big public case that people heard about.

But we can stop criminals in their tracks.

We can stop people from becoming serial offenders and potentially do away with serial killers and serial rapists if they decide to use genetic genealogy immediately in these investigations.

Because the problem is you don’t know if you’re going to get that hidden cotus until you’ve processed the DNA, created that profile and uploaded it.

And then if you don’t and you don’t have any other leads to follow, you’ve got to start all over.

And so we saw in the Kobberger case and I believe in this case the attempt to create those in parallel.

If you have enough DNA, split that DNA, give some of it to the crime lab to create that STR profile and then have a lab and it has to be an outside lab because none of the crime labs have the capability to create that genetic genealogy profile.

So then send some of the DNA out to do that at the same time.

So as soon as you don’t get that hit in the law enforcement databases, you can all you can turn to genetic genealogy or you can even have that started in progress.

I’ve certainly been working cases where they ended up getting a new COTUS hit as we were in progress too.

So sometimes we are working on it and then they get a new upload and COTUS and it solves the case.

But there’s no reason not to be trying especially when there’s public safety issues.

Uh you know I can’t help going back to the KBER case again.

You know he very likely was stopped in his tracks from victimizing more people.

We don’t know in NY’s case if this is just targeted to her or if because they failed to get a ransom they could try again.

But I think it’s best use genetics genealogy best use where it can be of most value to society is when it’s used right away to stop that violent criminal from hurting anyone else.

One thing I also want to touch on that you mentioned is that even the smallest amount of DNA can solve a case through genetic genealogy.

And I’m wondering, you know, if that’s the case, uh, and forgive me if I’ve asked you this question in another form, but why is this taking so long? Why is this deconvolution process, um, taking, you know, over a month and a half at this point? Well, unfortunately, it seems that the only sample that they feel is viable in this case is a complex mixture.

And so if it were a simple mixture, I think we’d already have answers or we’d be very close to having answers.

But based on what the sheriff has said and what I’ve heard from other insiders, this is a very difficult sample with which to work.

And that is the issue.

And that’s why I’ve talked about in other interviews, a second crime scene.

If and when there is a second crime scene found, meaning somewhere where Nancy was held, a car she was taken in, or if you know, unfortunately, she is found deceased at some point, there’s a second opportunity to collect DNA from that perpetrator.

So, if they did not successfully find his DNA at this crime scene, I’m very, very hopeful that there will be another opportunity to do so, and this case doesn’t just go cold and nothing else happens.

We saw in that case in Australia where a grandfather was abducted very recently, right around the same time as Nancy, that they ended up finding the location where he’d been held for a while.

And so that gave them additional evidence.

And that’s what made me think about that in this case is she she went somewhere, right? She went in somebody’s car.

If she was alive, she was held for some period of time.

If she was deceased, they had to have taken her somewhere.

And so that person or person should be very concerned because even if they don’t have a viable DNA sample right now, either technology will advance fast enough that we will be able to get one or there’s another opportunity where their DNA could be found, you know, it with further investigation with some other object or crime scene or Nancy herself that can lead to further collection.

possibilities.

You know, I I still believe his DNA has to be at that initial crime scene somewhere.

It’s just a matter of whether it got collected or it could still be collected.

DNA is hardy.

Uh I I’ve seen amazing crime scene investigators that have just had a hunch and swabbed something and it ended up being the key to the case.

It’s really hard to know, right, when you go in a big home like that or around a big home, what do you swab? But if he was there for what the theory has been 42 minutes or so and he had what appeared to be that bite flashlight in his mouth, you know, he’s not going to keep that in his mouth all that time.

And as soon as he touches his mouth, takes that out of his mouth, he’s got DNA on his gloves on the outside of his gloves.

If he touches anything in the home or outside the home, which we know he touched the camera and that camera mount, uh there almost has to be DNA there.

And so I’m hoping there’s more items that they’re in the process of trying to extract DNA from.

And sometimes that can take a while.

If you’ve got dozens of swabs or hundreds of swabs, they have to test every one of those hoping they’re going to find that relevant DNA sample.

And so, you know, that takes time unless you get lucky.

If there had been a, say, a mixture of blood, if there had been NY’s blood and this unknown male’s blood, again, I think this case would already be solved.

But they didn’t get lucky in this case and they’re dealing with a much more difficult challenging DNA sample to work with.

And you know, I know sheriff the sheriff Nano said a year from now, uh, you know, we could possibly have an answer, but at the rate that you see technology relating to genetic genealogy evolve, um, what’s your time frame? Well, I think with so much attention on this case, it will help push that forward faster.

If there are scientists out there that are biioinformaticists and want to make a name for themselves, they are hopefully already working on advanced deconvolution methods.

I’ve even heard recently that there is equipment that’s going to be coming out in about a year a year that’s going to be able to help with this.

And that’s rare because usually it’s processed the same, but then the data that comes out is what our biioinformatics scientists work with to try to deconvolute it.

But I hear from an insider there are some uh advanced machines that are going to help with that deconvolution process which would be brand new because that’s not something that we’re currently using.

And so you know this case and many others have helped to push the technology forward for genetic genealogy to be used.

I I think all of it’s fasttracked now.

Interesting.

So, so an insider has told you that there is actually new equipment specifically for this investigation that has been dedicated.

Well, it wasn’t for this investigation.

It was to address these complex mixtures because we deal with mixtures in many cases, right? You can understand with sexual assaults, it’s very common.

uh with the technology getting more and more sensitive where we can pick up smaller and smaller types of DNA samples that means you’re more likely to have mixtures.

So this is something that was already being worked on but like I said I think it will be fast forwarded because we’ve got such a high-profile public case that involves a complex mixture and there’s so much attention to that right now.

And just to round this off, Cece, I know I’m asking you to shotgun here.

Um, but with this technology at hand and at the disposal of the authorities, um, if you could quantify, uh, into a percentage or maybe a score out of 10, the likelihood that the perpetrator will be caught, what would that number be? Well, it’s really difficult to speculate because it’s going to matter on what DNA is found and what uh happens here.

You know, is it if it just goes totally cold and they only have this one crime scene, then, you know, obviously they’re struggling with that.

But if there is additional uh opportunities to collect DNA from that perpetrator at, as I said, a second location or an object or Nancy is found, you know, dead or alive, then I think absolutely he he or they will be identified and it will be solved.

But if all they have is this one sample, this complex mixture, I think it’s going to take some time because even if they’re fast forwarding it, it’s probably going to be months before that software package or equipment is able to deconvolute this sample.

If it is, there’s no guarantee that it would because I don’t know the proportions, right? If they told me it was 30%.

I’d say, “Oh, that’s doable.

” Even though it’s not something that has been done to my knowledge, it can be.

But if they told me it’s 10% or they have four unknown males in it and they’re all only 10% or 5%.

That’s pretty unlikely to ever be the evidence that solves this case.

So if I can say if they get a viable profile, genetic genealogy will definitely solve it and it will be solved within weeks in my opinion.

And that is because the FBI genetic genealogy team is ready to go on this.

you know, if they get that viable SNIP profile, they will be working night and day on this.

And as I’ve said in other interviews, too, I believe they will likely serve warrants on the big databases that we’re not allowed to use for genetic genealogy.

So, it begs the question, what databases are you allowed to use? Well, despite the fact there are over 50 million people who have taken direct to consumer DNA tests, the three largest companies have barred law enforcement from using their databases for this purpose.

So we are limited to the three smallest databases, Jed match, family tree DNA and DNA justice.

And so that makes these cases much more difficult to solve quickly.

And that’s why I believe if they get that viable snip profile that they can upload to the genetic genealogy databases in this case, I believe they will serve warrants on those big companies to try to find him sooner.

And so if you’re dealing with two million profiles to compare against, which is what we typically work with, compared to 50 million, that means that person could likely be identified in minutes, hours, days versus weeks, months, or years.

CeCe, you have been absolutely fantastic.

Thank you so much for joining me today.

Thanks for having me.