Mindhunter’ profiler on Nancy Guthrie abduction motive and why retribution could be factor

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Uh, it is now day 69 in the search for Nancy Guthrie.

It is Friday.

Uh, it has been 69 days since Nancy just went missing.

Literally just vanished from her home in Tucson, Arizona.

Uh, really interesting episode today because I am talking to Dr.Anne Burgess who is the famed FBI profiler.

She’s been doing this kind of work for decades.

She actually helped start the FBI behavioral analysis unit.

Uh you guys might know the show man uh Mind Hunter on Netflix.

One of the characters on Mind Hunter.

Uh Dr.Wendy Carr.

That was the character’s name was actually uh developed based on Dr.

Anne Burgess.

So it’s a real privilege to get to talk to her and she had such interesting insight when it comes to the Nancy Guthrie case.

uh what she thinks the motive w may be, why she thinks it may have something to do with retribution, and why she believes the FBI should be looking back at NY’s associates going back a decade or more.

There’s a lot that I hadn’t thought about before.

Uh and I’m going to get into it in this episode of Brian Investigates.

Dr.Anne Burgess, it’s so nice to to meet you.

I’ve uh been I don’t know fan is the right word but a a follower of your of yours for a long time and uh I appreciate you taking the time to um to join me today.

Sure.

Happy to.

Thank you for the invitation.

Um I I think most people at least in my audience know that you’re a a famed forensic uh profiler.

Um but tell us a little bit about your um your your background just for people who don’t know.

Yeah.

Um I think that my back my research started back uh when I was at newly uh professor associate professor at Boston College and Linda Holmstrom invited me to be on her research project on rape victims and that’s really what started this um and from there we we looked at 35 victims and were able to come up with some I think some important publications but then the Another big break I got was being invited down to the behavioral science unit to teach the um uh special agents.

Everybody had the same thing.

Was really interesting is how do you talk to a victim? It was kind of like they they were some group that you needed special skills to do.

And I thought, you know, here are these FBI agents that go out and interview, you know, killers and all of that.

and they’re they seemed a little bit timid around uh rape victims.

So anyway, that’s really what started me is how do you talk to people that have been through what what we call the traumatic experience and that has uh that really has been the basis for my work and then the profiling of course we got into I helped them develop the methodology for profiling uh from the work they were doing.

Yeah, it’s fascinating.

Um, with the Nancy Guthrie case, it’s I mean, it’s been more than two months now.

I, you know, I was on the ground in Tucson for uh, you know, almost 50 days total covering it.

And I thought surely in a couple weeks there’ll be some kind of resolution to this.

Uh, and, you know, from the sources that I have on the inside, there’s, you know, there’s not a suspect.

I don’t think there’s any good leads right now.

I mean, I don’t think I’d call it a cold case because they’re still working it really hard.

Uh, are you surprised it’s taking this long? Well, I kind of was with you.

I thought this would be wrapped up that this was a kidnapping and this would be wrapped up fairly quickly, but as you get into it now, as you know, we’re pretty handicapped with the kind we don’t have a lot of information that we can use.

Normally would have a lot more information.

Uh, we have almost zero information.

But I think the other thing that complicates this case is that the DNA that evidently they have some a little bit, but it’s going to be very hard to separate out um the DNA from family members or other uh who who’s known and so forth.

So, I think they really it’s it’s they’re at a hard place right now.

Unless the only thing that makes me think you could break open this case is if indeed there are two more than one person involved in this, whether it be because of setting it up or because of trying to kidnap her, etc.

, etc.

If if there’s multiple offenders, you can sometimes get them to break each one will break on the other.

Uh so that that’s the only thing that this is a tough case.

uh you just don’t have enough as you said even if you had inside information you still don’t have enough because there’s just no um there is some information I think with oh nothing missing that’s the other thing is how do you have a kid well you could have a kidnapping with just the person of course you have that in children but it’s very rare in elders and even you go online uh the amount of elders that are missing is very small And if it is, it’s it’s they’re missing for other reasons, not because of a kidnapping.

So all of those things you have against you in terms of trying to even come up with a profile uh because it’s such a small population that would ever abduct a an elder.

So no evidence.

Um that’s and the mixed DNA.

I think that’s what’s really hard when you were working with the profiling uh unit.

Do they have enough to come up with something at this point just based on what happened? B, you know, there’s that photo from the front camera.

Is there something more that they could be releasing to the public that would help with tips and sort of help narrow down the search? Yeah, absolutely.

And I I know I’ve been on a few other blogs way back when this first came out and I always wanted to know how did they get in.

That’s one of your first questions.

Somebody had to have gotten in.

There’s no forced entry.

There’s nothing.

So how that that could have helped an awful lot if you could have um I mean we are we have to just speculate that it was someone that either watched when this garage door went up or had been in there when the she had gone out and was hiding there.

I mean, all of those scenarios I’ve seen.

I’ve actually had cases where that’s happened.

But you you you just have to say these are possibilities.

Um, and why would they I think motive is important.

I don’t mean motive in terms of yes, they tried to get her out.

Of course, that we see that, but what is behind the what’s the real motive? Is this something against her, a 84 year old woman, or is this against somebody else within the family? uh we do know that that that can be in other cases.

I think what you’re asking is how many other cases have we seen in which we were able to develop a profile and then you you work your legacy cases against what you have current? That that’s always been my way of working these cases.

So is there something more they could be releasing at this point based on a profile? Oh, I do.

I I think they could release something about entry.

um is I that’s why you you can’t have this without having somebody getting into the house, right? I mean, we all agree.

And then they leave by a different exit.

I think that’s important.

I did learn in one case where she also had another way out, there was a sliding door.

You probably know this, in to a little kind of enclosed area that she would go out to and read or or write in her journal.

And if she was writing in her journal, that would be wonderful to be able to get access to that.

I don’t see why that would compromise anything.

Uh so to answer your question, I think there are other small bits of evidence that could be released that people could then ha have more to be able to again hypothesize on or to speculate.

I I think they could they could let more out.

Based on what you know that’s public, what is your theory? I mean, do you think do you think this was a kidnapping? Oh, I think what something went very wrong inside the house and that either she she wasn’t alive when when something happened because you know there was blood.

I mean they have released that and that there was blood also outside.

So it isn’t that something something could have happened but not have caused her demise but she cuz she at least gets out.

Uh so you’ve got some droplets.

Again, we don’t even know how much you have to analyze.

And then why does it stop? Where does it go? You know, those kinds of things.

Does it go into a car? Does it follow a path? Does it those kinds of things? It’s just like it it vanish.

She just vanishes.

And uh so could they let a little bit more out? Yes, I think that they should.

As this case has continued, as you said, for over two months, that’s a long well, it’s not a long time in terms of a kidnapping, we know that they it can take a long time, but we only have cases usually of children is um you know, taken for ransom is what we we go by, but not not of the elder.

Yeah, that’s what I’ve wondered, Dr.

Burgess like of all the people that you could kidnap and let’s just say this was because of the daughter Savannah Guthrie and you were going to try to get money but still to take an 84year-old woman who Savannah Guthrie said sometimes even has trouble walking into the mailbox.

Uh you know there’s a lot of rich people around.

I just wonder why why do you think this this woman why an 84 year old woman? Well, unless it was the target was somebody else in the family and the object was to get someone that was close to that that is a possibility that you could take somebody else than the than the actual target.

And the other question you want to ask is who would benefit from this, you know, and who who is going to gain from this? Obviously, whoever took her.

We know she was taken because she’s not present.

But um the motive for that is is very curious.

I think if they could get the motive, you’d have more to go on.

But right now we don’t.

And uh uh I I there is the well that Bitcoin thing came up.

We do know that.

And so it’s got to be someone that knows something about bitcoins, right? It isn’t some 84 year old person trying to abduct her for some other reason.

So money has to come in at some level.

Whether how primary it is, we don’t know.

Unless it’s staged, unless it was staged, you know, to throw everybody off.

What What do you mean by that staged? Uh for people to think that there was a motive like that and and it would still have to come from somebody that was involved, I think.

But you don’t have to accept that, you know, it could just be someone law enforcement will always always tell you that they get all kinds of tips when there’s any type of a case like this.

Hundreds of tips, they say.

So, you want to be real careful that they that they accurately are are classifying the tips.

Right.

Makes sense.

When you said that she may not I think you said she may not have been the target.

They may have taken her to get to someone else, right? What do you Yeah, I haven’t heard much about that theory.

What What do you mean by that? Well, who who in the in their in her orbit, let’s call it that.

That could be family, could be friends, would um be hurt the most.

And I I think you can answer that.

have to, but there something could have come up there that uh we don’t know about and that’s up to people in her orbit to kind of figure out cuz it’s a very it’s a very mean, angry uh horrible thing to to do.

And then if it goes wrong, which obviously it did, I think, um I it doesn’t make sense that she would be a target to to um do more than abduct her.

Yeah.

Yeah.

It’s it really is so perplexing.

The the person or the people seems like it would probably take more than one person to pull all this off.

Um absolutely.

That have still been able to evade capture.

uh you know there’s the million-dollar reward now.

What do you think it will take? I mean you you you’ve studied the minds.

I mean does it is there any guilt there that would eventually set in or could it could it be the desire for the money that someone finally gives into? See I don’t think I mean it could be of course but I don’t think it is.

I think there’s something else operating here.

Million dollars people you know that that’s not a a small sum.

So as the money goes up uh that but it doesn’t seem to have attracted anybody any any further information.

I think you want to look at it from that standpoint.

Nothing z.

Yeah.

So when you say something further going on, what do you mean? I feel like there’s something you’re not saying sort of you like.

Well, yeah.

Is there retaliation? Is there revenge? Is it you want to go down that line of possible motives and that this is some way of getting even or whatever? Um, I’m just listing them.

It’s not that I think that it’s any one of those, but those would be possible motives.

I mean, we usually do that anytime we’re profiling and trying to go after motiv.

Do you think there’s a possib And the sheriff has said yes to this question, but didn’t really explain why.

Do you think there’s a possibility who did this could reaffend, could do this again? I’m not convinced that will happen if you follow the logic that it’s something else.

If it’s a a p what we call a personal cause, in other words, only to that person does it have meaning.

So, it’s not like you have a um a a serial offender that he’s going to go out and do this to someone else.

He could.

Of course, I’d answer yes, he could.

But uh uh it is someone that does hold a grudge.

I mean, we’re seeing some of these.

Look at the last two cases that we that have been solved and how long the grudge went.

U remember the Brown University case.

Yeah.

And and the poor professor up here in Massachusetts was murdered.

And then there was one other case I’m trying to think of.

U where Oh, the Ty case.

The the uh husband wife.

Yes.

Those are years.

8 10 years.

That’s a long time.

You You like to think that people that hold grudges or are paranoid or whatever that it kind of wears itself out, but not in those two cases, it didn’t.

Yeah, that’s a good point because that Yeah, that the Brown professor hadn’t even interacted with that man for years and years.

So, I guess if if the FBI, if they’re hitting dead ends on things right now, they have to go back I hadn’t thought about this.

They have to really they could have to go back a decade.

They are.

Absolutely.

That’s why legacy cases are very important.

Very important.

That’s what one of the first things you do when you have a case like you’re looking at now is where has it happened before? And look what they’ve come up with.

It’s been the baby cases.

Um it’s been the Lindberg case.

Of course, that was money.

Um but look at how bold that was.

That’s a pretty bold one back in 1932 that they put a ladder up and go up and and the family is home and they still get away with it or at least they they don’t get away with it per se, but they get the baby out.

Let me put it that way.

Um what are the other ones? Uh there are a couple others that they’ve they’ve had in the news since this case.

Yeah, a lot of people think the reason that this case has been so popular, I guess maybe that’s not the right word, but people are so invested in it is because of Savannah Guthrie, the daughter, but I also think it’s because so many of us with aging parents or grandparents, like this is our worst nightmare.

You’re always a little concerned, you know, like your mom doesn’t want to move into a retirement home and you’re trying to give her independence, but you’re always just a little bit worried at all times that someone’s going to take advantage.

like even with the scam phone calls and it just seems like it comes at older people from every direction now.

Uh how do you think that plays into this? Well, I think you raised a very interesting point that could be a motive.

That could be a motive.

Pay more attention to our elders.

Look at what can happen.

You know, you could have somebody that had an experience.

I will always say they have to have had some genesis, if you will, of that.

Did they lose an elder parent? Did they are they angry that nothing was done to help that? And that could stimulate or activate some.

So I think you have identified another possible motive that’s as remote as the one I gave.

Yeah.

Well, to to take an 84y old like that, I guess you could be trying to send some kind of message.

Yeah, absolutely.

It’s so unusual.

And it has been that is I’m not saying that’s a positive of this, but it is something people have talked about and have thinking about how are we handling our aging um family members? Yeah.

Yeah.

I I’ve certainly thought a lot about it just from covering it.

Has there been and I think you teach a class on this, you did teach a class on this.

Has there been an increase in elder abuse? I mean, is that something that we’re seeing more of in America? Yes.

Um, and that was raised in one of the uh I I know where uh I certainly I’ve had now over 100 cases of nursing home um sexual abuse.

Now my area is more sexual abuse, but it is something that um is happening and you would think that there’d be enough people out there saying, “Good grief, this is horrible.

” But they’re not.

You know, when you get into these cases, they will try to cover up the cases.

Well, the nursing homes will, but uh there is a there are people that and it isn’t just peers, you know, in other words, you can always have a resident, but the staff, you would say, well, why people find that hard that that a year old or an 85year-old might be still sexually attractive to somebody.

It is if it’s a what we call a paraphilia, you know, if that’s their fetish.

So, you have to understand it from that standpoint, just as children are.

So, um, that isn’t the the most unheard of to have asked that question.

And I think one person did ask me that.

And I’d have to say, uh, but that’s not the way those cases happen is, uh, what I I said, I never knew someone to be abducted and then used sexually as you might have with a pedophile, with a a person interested in children.

So, they would have, and I hate to even talk about this, thinking about like a grandma, but it’s it’s life.

I mean, so, so if it was sexually motivated, you think they would have just done that in the house, but not taken her away.

Is that what you’re saying? Yeah.

And and the way, you know, there is elder pornography.

So, you have to realize that there are people out there interested in the the older person sexually or they wouldn’t have the pornography.

Interesting.

Um, disturbing to think about it.

I Yeah, I know.

And in all those cases that you had in nursing homes, it’s like again you just I think this is something that is buried within a lot of us being worried about our parents and grandparents and like all of this just makes you think about that you know.

Sure.

Absolutely.

Back to what you were saying about the vengeance motive possibly someone I guess would it be someone maybe angry at Savannah that would do this? Could be.

It could be.

I am sure that law enforcement talked with her about that.

Has she had any kind of uh over the years, it wouldn’t have to be just recent, but over the years, did she ever get any bad letters or any um anything along that line that would indicate that she because a lot of people in in high-profile get them.

Um so, and it could be someone that’s just, you know, not uh has the situation all wrong, but it it uh that’s why people have to be careful.

they have bodyguards or they have surveillance or you know whatever.

Do you think the ransom notes or at least some of them are real? Well, the only one that seemed real because it was I think contained in an affidavit was the u bitcoin where it was actually mentioned.

Yeah.

Rather than oh, I want a million dollars or something like that.

So, um I’m I hope that they went over that carefully.

Right.

Yeah.

I mean, and but the strange thing is there was never really a proof of life or when I think of ransom notes, I would think there’d be more detail there.

Oh, absolutely.

Yeah.

And that’s why I don’t think they paid attention.

You have to have proof of life.

People aren’t just going to uh fall for a letter saying, you know, turn over your money.

Do you think this will be solved based on everything you know and everything you know about what goes on behind the scenes with the FBI? I do think it will be solved at some point.

Now, how soon? I don’t know.

These can go on a long time, but I I think it will at some point because as I said, I think that more than one person was involved and uh if that time runs out, u I mean, I think we have to assume that to get her out of the house, especially since her daughter said that she was having trouble walking, you know, so she’s I don’t know that she used to walker or anything.

We again we don’t have that kind of information which would be helpful and I don’t think would compromise the um the investigation.

So you think they should release more.

Is that is that right? I Yes.

At least to a certain group.

Should they go to an outer circle? I know they they must have an inner circle.

Why can’t they go to a group that really does this? I know that.

I’m surprised that maybe and maybe they have.

I I don’t know if they the uh FBI certainly always has the BSU, the behavioral science unit, where they do the profiling.

Um I would hope that somebody had been consulted there.

You you mentioned how you work with the victims a lot kind of on the other side of this.

Everybody’s thinking of Savannah Guthrie and you know, she just went back to work.

You know, everybody saw her back on the Today Show.

How hard is it and how do you move try to move on with your life when something is so unsettled and um not solved? And also I’ve thought about even with her I wonder if she even fears for her own safety not knowing who this person is and what the motive was.

I would assume she has added to her security.

Yes.

And you don’t move on.

There’s a part of you that will just look at how many unsolved cases we have.

I mean there are only a tiny only about half if that gets solved.

Even homicide cases where you have a lot of evidence, it’s very hard to solve.

So, I think that uh it is to the advantage, unfortunately, of whomever is involved in this that um I I’d like to that’s why you really want to have it solved so that they don’t think they can just get away with it and and u the possibility that that it is a serial offender.

We we never can say for certain that it is or is not.

But for Savannah or for people who like when you talk to victims and it’s it’s unresolved, the person has not been caught, how do you deal with that dayto-day? Well, what we suggest is that people talk with other people that are in the same boat.

That helps a little bit.

And so we set up virtual um groups that they can talk about it and then they can they can become involved in each other’s search.

And even if you solve one, it helps the whole group.

So that that’s kind of where we’re at with that.

You can’t just sit and think about it yourself.

You really have to share the anxiety and the angst that that there is.

And and and those groups do sometimes come up with um solutions.

Uh they find what works.

You know, that that’s important in any kind of traumatic experience is what works, what help the person move on.

And that’s what a group can do for each other.

And there was something else I wanted to ask you while I had you here.

It doesn’t have to do with Nancy Guthrie, but I don’t know if you’ve been following Rex Herman, the Gilg Beach um actually up in your part of the country.

Um you’re not too far from there, but uh he agreed as part of his plea deal to work with the FBI profilers to essentially be studied.

Yes.

And since you worked in that unit, how does that work? I mean, will they just visit him regularly in jail? Like how does that what does that look like? Well, a lot of it’s going to be the methodology of to answer your questions.

Well, it’s not going to be one I I would hope it’s not one meeting that you really have to have one or two people that set up a and develop a relationship so that he will open up because you can’t assume that he’s going to give all the information and so that will work over time and I would hope they would have some kind of a schedule so that there is time for him to think about maybe get him the questions ahead of time uh so that he can think about them just a few and and work it that way, I suspect is how they’re going to do it.

And they’ll probably, I would hope, videotape it so that it could be shown to others so that you don’t have to have him talking just to this whole big group that it would be more um uh more more select and in who goes.

And you’re also going to want to have somebody that has done enough of these before.

that will be important, which I’m sure, you know, they certainly have agents there who have done this.

So, it’s not going to be hard for them to find someone u that has some kind of um somebody that has talked with serial killers.

You’re going to have to have that cuz he’s got at least eight.

We probably sure he’s got more.

I mean, I’m my opinion is he’s got more, but um at least he’s admitted to eight.

I’ve seen some comment that they don’t like that the in terms of the him being interviewed and studied because people think that that’s just the attention that he wanted that it it will give him some kind of satisfaction.

Well, it will.

So, I mean, how else are you going to get the information? I mean, I know how the agents when uh they were doing this back in the 80s and 90s, uh that was one of the the hooks to get them so that they they had here they had the FBI coming in to talk to them.

That’s a big deal.

Blah blah blah that kind of thing.

They were uh revered, if you will, in prison.

Not in any way not.

And of course, they’re not revered uh if you will in the in the public’s eyes.

So that did give them something, I guess.

use that to your advantage.

I guess when you’re with you, yeah, as a negotiation, you have to both sides have to get something.

The other thing I thought of when this deal came down with Humeman is I had covered the Brian Coberger case extensively.

And I was wondering, I wonder why they didn’t do that with Cobberger because there’s still so many questions out there about why he did what he did.

I do too.

I’m with you.

They should have.

They should.

I guess could they could have required it, right, for him to get the That’s right.

That I think that’s what they did with Human.

Yeah.

Didn’t they say, “Yeah, we will, you know, we’ll agree to you pleading guilty if you will answer, you know, talk with our our agent.

” Sure.

Yeah.

It was kind of disappointing that they didn’t also do that with Coberg.

I think No, I It’s curious that they didn’t.

Yeah.

I really appreciate Dr.

Burgess uh for taking the time uh to talk with me.

again, just like I’ve I’ve known about her for a long time and I watched the show Mind Hunter, so it was a privilege to to get the time to speak with her.

Uh, and again, day 69, just hope someone will come forward who knows something about what happened to Nancy.

The number I’ve told you guys before, 1800 call, uh, FBI.

Um, and I I still believe that we’re going to get a resolution soon.

You heard Dr.

Burgess say she believes that the case will eventually be solved.

Uh it’s just a matter of when.

So I hope everybody has a good weekend.

Appreciate you guys for following along with me this week.

Um and I’ll talk to you guys later.