Wars don’t just have winners and losers.
They have scorecards.
The United States and Israel launched what may be the most consequential military operation of the 21st century.
They assassinated Iran’s supreme leader.
They targeted its nuclear program.
They wanted regime change.
Now there is a ceasefire in place, fragile, contested, already being violated.
But here is the question nobody is asking clearly enough.
In these 40 days of fire, missiles and closed straits, who actually got what? Hello and welcome.
I am Nikita Kapoor and you are watching Decode.
And in this episode, we decode who won what and who lost what in the Middle East conflict.
Let’s go country by country.
On paper, Iran is the loser.
Its supreme leader Ayatah Ali Kamini is dead.
Its nuclear facilities bombed.
Its economy shattered.
Its people displaced by the millions.
And yet Iran is celebrating in the streets.
Why? Because Thran is telling its people that the ceasefire was signed on Iran’s terms.
Its 10point proposal, sanctions lifted, reparations paid, the right to enrich uranium is still up for debate and negotiations.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared and I quote the spirit of it nearly all the objectives of the war have been achieved.
You have to admire the audacity or question the reality or probably both.
In this case, Trump came in swinging.
He threatened to wipe out a whole civilization.
He set deadlines.
He used language on social media that would make a sailor blush.
And then one hour before his own deadline expired, he took the ceasefire.
Analysts are calling it a strategic retreat.
The US military bases in the region had been rendered.
In the words of one CSIS adviser, all but uninhabitable.
800 million in damage.
service members sleeping in hotels.
Iran had hit back harder and wider than anyone expected.
Trump needed an exit.
Pakistan gave him one.
Well, Israel got what it came for, or at least what it lobbyied for.
Kamini is dead.
Iran’s nuclear program is severely degraded.
Hezbollah already weakened since 2023 is now fighting a full ground invasion in Lebanon.
But the ceasefire doesn’t include Lebanon.
Nathan Yahu made it very clear that Israel is not done.
Now this one is complicated.
Reports confirm it was Riyad along with Israel that lobbyed Trump hardest to launch this war.
Multiple phone calls between Muhammad bin Salman and Donald Trump.
The push was real.
But then Iran fired back at Saudi cities at its energy facilities.
The King Fad Causeway between Saudi Arabia and Bahin shut down by missile strikes by Iran.
Saudi Arabia got the war it wanted and then got hit in it.
There is a lesson there somewhere.
Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest, was hit on day two of this war.
Drones, missiles, debris over Abu Dhabi.
Iranian strikes fired at it over and over again.
438 ballistic missiles, over 2,000 drones in 40 days.
The UAE’s air defenses held mostly.
But the message from Thran was unmistakable.
You are not safe behind your glass towers.
The UAE called it economic warfare.
And they weren’t wrong.
Qatar was caught in the crossfire literally and economically.
Iran struck Qatar’s Raslfen gas field.
Result, 17% ofQatar’s Alenry export capacity gone for up to 5 years.
Qatar hosts the largest US air base in the region.
It didn’t ask for this war, but it got it anyway.
Now, Russia did not fire a single missile.
didn’t need to.
Russia and China vetoed the UN Security Council resolution on the straight off.
Moscow stood firmly with Thran at the international table, offering diplomatic cover while the West scrambled.
Russia gets a weakened America in the Middle East, a distracted NATO and oil prices that even with a ceasefire remain elevated and earned Russia billions.
Not bad for a country that stayed on the sidelines.
The quite power broker, China.
Trump himself admitted it.
Beijing, he said, helped push Iran to the negotiating table.
China’s foreign minister, Wangi, made 26 phone calls, a joint five-point initiative with Pakistan, a special envoy to the region.
China positioned itself as the responsible adult in the room in this conflict even while voting against Western resolutions at the UN in the new world order that is not a contradiction that is a strategy viewers and finally the surprise of this entire war Pakistan Pakistan brokered this fire prime Prime Minister Shahbas Sharif personally called Trump urged him to extend the deadline for Iran, convinced Theran to reopen the Straight of Hormos.
A country that has long been seen as a peripheral player just stepped into the center of the world’s most dangerous conflict right now.
So there you have it.
Nine countries, 40 days, one fragile ceasefire.
The missiles may have paused, but the scorecard is still being written.
What do you think, and who do you think scored the most? Tell us in the comment section below.
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