
We need to talk about what’s happening in Cuba right now.
>> Cuba is in the midst of one of history’s greatest crises.
Life on the 10 million strong island has ground to a halt.
The power is out.
>> So this is Cuba and there is no electricity anywhere because there’s no oil, there’s no energy.
Everybody else is in the dark.
The fuel is gone and the people’s patience has finally run out.
Protests are erupting in Havana’s inner city neighborhoods.
Cuba is experiencing its most serious popular uprising since 1959, and the regime cannot suppress it.
The regime has only one chance of survival, a lifeline from a powerful ally.
However, Russia has made no moves for 2 months.
On the contrary, Putin evacuated his own citizens due to the jet fuel crisis on the island.
Months later, Putin directed two oil tankers to the island, one scheduled to arrive on March 23rd and the other on April 4th.
This was the Cuban people’s last hope.
However, the ship expected to arrive on March 23rd did not come and was forced to change its route.
It seems nearly impossible for the other ship to reach the island under the US blockade.
Putin’s desperate or demonstrative fuel aid initiative has also fallen through.
To understand Cuba’s collapse, one need only look at a single figure.
The island’s electricity production is 90% dependent on imported diesel and fuel oil.
That amounts to 100,000 barrels of oil per day.
For years, the water for this mill came from Venezuela from Hugo Chavez from Maduro.
But in January 2026, the US administration pulled the trigger.
With Trump’s move against Venezuela, that oil flow was cut off like a knife.
Immediately afterward, Trump erected a global barrier by issuing a direct executive order stating, “Anyone selling oil to Cuba will face US tariffs.
” Cuba’s other supplier, Mexico, backed down immediately.
Not a single major oil tanker has docked in Cuba since December 2025.
And the final blow came when the US officially banned Cuba from purchasing Russian oil.
This decision was made while at least two tankers were already on route to deliver fuel to the island.
So the last lifeline has been cut.
The severing of the fuel supply triggered the expected catastrophe in Cuba.
In midFebruary, the analysis platform 1945 issued a zero hour warning, noting that the island’s oil reserves had dwindled to just 15 days.
That hour has come and gone.
When the power plants ran out of fuel, the national grid completely collapsed.
The country pulled the plug.
Reports from CNN on the streets of Havana lay bare the full extent of the disaster.
The island’s sole real source of foreign currency, tourism, has ground to a halt.
Between January and November 2025, Cuba hosted only about 1.
2 million visitors.
This figure marks a sharp decline from the 4.
8 million recorded in 2018, a year hit hard by the pandemic and sanctions.
The words of a Cuban shopkeeper to CNN are in fact the cry of the entire economy’s collapse.
Everything is uncertain at the moment.
He says there’s no fuel.
We don’t know if there will be any and how we will pay for it.
There’s no tourism.
Moreover, the collapse wasn’t limited to tourism.
Factories have ground to a halt due to the energy crisis.
There isn’t even jet fuel to put in the planes.
Major companies like Air Canada and Air France have suspended flights.
When the power grid collapses, it’s not just the lights that go out.
The systems faith in the state also fades.
The Cuban people have been accustomed to poverty and scarcity for decades.
However, a continuous power outage lasting over 60 hours marks the point where the threshold of survival has been crossed.
In some neighborhoods, access to clean water has dropped to just a few hours a day because water pumps aren’t working.
Families are forced to make a deadly choice between medicine, which has skyrocketed to astronomical prices on the black market, and unspoiled basic food.
And finally, the inevitable happened.
Latin America’s famous tradition of protest, the casolasso, took to the streets in Cuba for the first time on such a massive scale.
In various neighborhoods of the capital, people who had been cowed by fear for generations filled the streets in defiance of the communist regime.
This wasn’t limited to Havana alone.
Over 150 protests were reported in and across the island.
The people were shouting that the problem wasn’t just fuel.
The problem was the system itself.
So, how did the regime respond? As any authoritarian regime would do, the government cut off the internet and severed communication with the world.
They sent police into the streets and arrests began.
But this time, the situation is different.
The patience of a society condemned to live in poverty for generations, lulled to sleep by the state’s equality fairy tale has officially snapped.
Recent reports from Havana indicate that the situation is escalating further.
Explosions and the roar of low-flying helicopters were heard in the streets of the capital.
According to Cuban journalist Mag Jorge Castro, Cuban special forces personnel in black berets have taken to the streets and are preventing neighbors from even standing in their doorways.
>> This is the regime’s panic.
Many feared this was turning into a Venezuela 2.
0 scenario.
Regime media claimed these sounds were from a military exercise.
But for a people waiting in the dark, military helicopters flying overhead are not an exercise.
They are an open threat.
A moment of crisis lays bare not only the economy but also ideological hypocrisy in its roarest form.
And amidst this chaos in Cuba, there is an incident that will etch the rottness of the communist system into history.
In the heart of Havana, the lights of a five-star hotel are shining.
In this hotel, there are left-wing activists who have come from the comfortable cities of the west to show solidarity with Cuba.
Members of groups like Pablo Iglacius, Hassan Paher, and Code Pink.
This is the classic authoritarian system.
The elites and those who curry favor with the regime survive while the people perish in the darkness.
But this hypocrisy isn’t just a matter of comfort.
This hypocrisy has come at a deadly cost.
The Irish band kneecap organized a concert in Havana under the guise of support for the Cuban regime and humanitarian aid.
However, due to the electricity used to light that stage and power the high voltage setup, a disaster occurred at a nearby hospital.
Excessive electricity consumption caused fluctuations in the grid and the hospital’s emergency power system failed.
This is precisely what the people on the street are rebelling against.
They are not just protesting the power outages, but this injustice, this absurd system.
So, right in the middle of this massive chaos, what is Cuba’s ally Russia doing? Russia isn’t sending massive oil tankers or cargo planes to save its last stronghold in the Caribbean.
On the contrary, due to the jet fuel crisis on the island, it’s trying to evacuate its own citizens via one-way evacuation flights.
Rossia and Nordwind airlines have begun operating one-way evacuation flights to Cuba.
But the truly striking part is how the Kremlin is trying to justify this betrayal.
Russian propagandists appear on state television and openly state, “We owe Cuba nothing.
” What do you think their justification is? I don’t recall any such statements.
Which in my view nullifies all your fiery claims that we owe Cuba something.
Cuba has not provided Moscow with sufficient support in the war against Ukraine and has not officially recognized the territories Russia has occupied.
In front of the cameras, however, Vladimir Putin is playing his usual game.
He harshly condemned the US’s actions and said he would continue sending oil to Cuba.
Putin tried this.

Two tankers carrying fuel from Russia to Cuba have set sail and were expected to reach the island.
According to a report by the Financial Times, a Hong Kong flagged vessel was due to arrive in Cuba around March 23rd, while the Russian flagged tanker was scheduled to arrive on April 4th.
It was reported that this shipment would serve as first aid for Cuba, which has been unable to obtain fuel for 3 months and would alleviate power outages.
The Financial Times, citing data from maritime intelligence firms such as Caper, Windwood, and Tanker Trackers, reported the same details to the global media on March 18th to 20th.
The Russian flagged tanker Anatoli Colodkin loaded 730,000 barrels of crude oil from Russia’s Primorsek port on March 8th.
The Hong Kong flagged Seahorse, meanwhile, was carrying approximately 190,000 to 200,000 barrels.
27,000 tons of Russian origin diesel/ gas oil.
This was Russia’s intervention in the deepening energy crisis caused by Cuba’s inability to obtain fuel from any country since January.
So, did the Russian ships reach Cuba? No, they did not.
Seahorse deviating from its planned route to Cuba, it headed toward Trinidad and Tobago.
According to Reuters data, the ship is heading toward Trinidad instead of delivering the fuel to Cuba and is expected to reach Trinidad’s waters on March 23rd.
Some intelligence reports suggest that the seahorse may have made a small delivery to Cuba during a previous voyage using covert methods, but the cargo on this voyage did not go to Cuba.
Anatoli Kodkin still sailing in the Atlantic.
Although it was reported on March 22nd that it was approaching the Matanza’s terminal north of Cuba, there is no news of arrival or unloading today.
The US Navy, including the USS Nitsa and Coast Guard vessels, are closely monitoring the area.
The estimated arrival date has been updated to between March 23rd and 30th in some sources and to next week in others.
The ship is on the sanctions lists of the US, the EU, and the UK.
In short, the shipment attempt is ongoing, but delays are occurring due to the US’s de facto energy blockade and logistical obstacles.
So why can’t Moscow actually do anything? Because the quagmire in Ukraine has drained Russia’s entire military, economic, and logistical capacity.
To cover up this helplessness, Moscow frequently refers to history, specifically the famous 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
It’s trying to create the illusion that it can still force Washington to the negotiating table by threatening to escalate nuclear tensions.
But let’s pause and consider this irony.
Today’s Russia is not yesterday’s Soviet Union.
In 1962, Kruef actually deployed nuclear missiles to Cuba, forced US President Kennedy to the negotiating table, and got what he wanted by bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war.
Today, however, Putin can barely even send a civilian evacuation plane to Cuba due to fuel shortages, let alone a nuclear missile.
The latest report published by the international crisis group proves that this collapse is not limited to Cuba alone but is a Putin syndrome.
Under intensifying US pressure, Russia has limited its support to sending just a few air defense systems and registering the shadow fleet of tankers carrying Venezuelan oil within its own jurisdiction.
And the most striking sentence in the report, just as we witnessed in the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the Kremlin is completely devoid of the military and logistical capacity needed to keep its allies in Latin America afloat.
Putin’s much touted multi-olar world order is dying in the dark streets of Havana.
As Russia flees the island in panic, another superpower is watching and gradually filling this massive geopolitical vacuum in the Caribbean.
China.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stepped before the cameras and issued a very clear official statement.
We firmly support Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security.
As always, we will provide whatever support we can.
Do you know what the difference is? Beijing isn’t just talking, it’s taking action.
China has even signed an agreement to build a full 92 solar power plants in Cuba by 2024.
And the first plant quietly went into operation at the start of 2025.
It’s not just solar panels.
Electrical equipment, shipments of tons of rice, and infrastructure projects are moving forward without pause.
Of course, China isn’t doing this because it’s an angel of goodwill.
Beijing isn’t interested in saving Cuba.
Beijing is interested in filling the void left by Russia and leaving a permanent unshakable footprint in the US’s backyard.
And the most devastating part of this scenario for Putin isn’t just that he’s being overshadowed by China.
The real issue is the hollowing out of the BRICS project, which Putin has been touting for years as his greatest weapon against the West.
Remember, Cuba joined BRICS as an associate member as early as January 2025.
But today that block led by Russia cannot save its own member from the darkness in the face of a single administrative order from the United States.
This is not a failure.
It is the fundamental collapse of BRICS’s claim to be a global alternative.
And the bill is being sent directly to the Kremlin.
The most painful reality underlying Cuba’s current collapse is this.

This country’s economy has historically always been dependent on an external sponsor.
First the Soviet Union, then Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela.
This artificial sponsorship system was a facade concealing Cuba’s decadesl long structural decay.
Now there is no sponsor.
The real figures are clear.
Cuba’s economy shrank by 11% between 2020 and 2024.
Electricity production plummeted from 20.
7 terowatt hours in 2019 to 15.
3 terowatt hours in 2023.
So what happens next? In reality, there are only three paths ahead for the island.
Path one, a negotiated transition.
The government acknowledges that the system has collapsed and gradually liberalizes the economy.
It gives private businesses some breathing room, opening up the economy while retaining political control.
There are already signs of this.
Cuban President Diaz Canel’s previously harsh rhetoric has suddenly softened.
On February 6th, he stated, “We are ready to discuss any issue with Washington without preconditions.
” And according to leaked information, secret talks with the US had already begun as early as March 13th.
The second path, prolonged collapse and intensifying pressure.
The regime remains stubborn, refuses to open up the economy and imposes stricter police measures.
But this is unsustainable because loyalty is eroding.
Cuba’s population, which stood at 11.
1 million in 2021, dropped to 9.
7 million in 2024.

We’re talking about a 12% exodus for an island nation.
This is demographic suicide.
The third path, a sudden breakdown among the elite.
When resources are completely exhausted, the elites at the top of the regime begin to clash with one another over the last crumbs of the pie.
The factions that remain silent make covert contacts with Washington or Beijing to survive.
Trust vanishes, and history shows us that such closed systems do not gradually improve.
One morning, suddenly they crack with a loud crash.
And here lies the truly striking reality.
No matter which scenario plays out, Russia is not a decisive actor in any of them.
Putin is no longer at the table in this grand game in the Caribbean.
Cuba’s descent into darkness is not merely the tragedy of an island nation.
It is the most painful, most stark proof of how Vladimir Putin failed to protect his allies, failed to keep his promises, and was crushed under the weight of the war economy he created, vanishing from the global stage.
So, what do you think? Can Cuba weather this crisis, or is collapse inevitable? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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