You saw that correctly.

That’s a surveillance drone that’s disguised as a natural bird operating over Iran.

Best of all, that drone looks like an eagle.

That’s not even the most significant news coming out of the Middle East.

Yesterday, Houthis entered the war.

Houthis fired a ballistic missile and a rocket from Yemen to Israel.

Luckily, all these projectiles were intercepted.

But nonetheless, this was a major indication not for the rockets that were fired, but what it meant for shipping around the world.

For us to understand the risk here, we have to first look at how has oil trade reoriented itself after Iranian regime shut down the straight of Hermoose.

You see, before the war, around 15 million barrels of crude oil shipped through the straight of Hermoose every single day.

Now, it was pretty much impossible to replace all this supply once the war started.

But Saudi Arabia has been able to replace a big part of this supply by shipping their oil from their east coast to the west coast and loading it up on tankers in the Red Sea.

Now, as we covered yesterday, a lot of the straight of Hermoose oil was going to Asian countries.

Yesterday I accidentally said Russian countries but in reality they’re going to Asian countries because there is no such thing as Russian countries but most of the oil from the state of Hermoose around 80% or so goes to Asian countries.

So that means now that the oil is being transferred across the country in Saudi Arabia they get loaded up on a tanker on the Red Sea port and then they go through this another choke point known as Bob Almondap straight.

Now, this is where the Houthi problem becomes problematic, I guess.

Last year, Houthi started attacking all the ships that were going through this trade to make sure Israel stops its war against Iran and against Gaza.

Now, this actually had a pretty big impact on the global economy because a lot of tankers and a lot of shipping big container ships would use the Red Sea, use the straight and then go to Europe using the Suez Canal that’s right at the top or right at the north of the Red Sea.

That’s exactly the worry this time too.

If Houthis start attacking ships in the strait, it would shut down the traffic going from Asia to Europe that used to use the Suez Canal, the traffic would have to go all the way around from the Horn of Africa, which adds around 14
days and pushes up inflation all around the world, more specifically in Europe.

But on top of that, now that a lot of Saudi supply that cannot go through the straight of Hermuz is going through this Red Sea and the straight of Babal Mandab, if Houthi start attacking ships again, that supply will disappear too.

So we’ll feel the pressure doubly.

First of all, the traffic of goods coming from Asia to Europe will stop and then the traffic of oil coming from Saudi Arabia to Asia will also stop or get delayed heavily.

Now when Houthis were doing this last year, US air force actually started just bombing Houthi positions in Yemen to make sure they can reinstate freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

Luckily, there was actually a ceasefire in May of last year when Houthis agreed to not attack any American ships and this is when the US bombing stopped.

Now, important point here is that if Houthis are going to break that ceasefire to help Iran and shut down the Babal Nandab state.

This was their statement that they put out yesterday after their attack on Israel.

Take a listen.

Well, I spoke with a military expert who tells me that the Lahouthi’s position in this war will consist of three phases.

First phase is to launch continuous attacks against Israeli military positions until Israel stops its military role in the attacks against Iran.

That’s the first phase.

The second phase will consist of imposing a naval blockade on all Israeli linked ships attempting to cross Babel Mendab.

And as you know, all imported goods into the port of Elat goes through Babel Mendde.

In fact, 30% of Israel’s trade and all imported uh uh goods crossed Babel Mandep and crossed through to the Red Sea.

Iran war updates: Marco Rubio tells Al Jazeera that Trump prefers diplomacy

Israel racked up a total of $80 million in debt because of the onsouth’s military attacks from 2024 to 25.

They also were effective in ultimately uh announcing the closure of the port of Ilat and also the port of Hifa all because of the onsouth’s military attacks against all uh Israeli linked vessels and all uh Israeli linked companies attempting to cross Babel Mendab.

Uh the second phase as I mentioned is imposing a naval blockade on all Israeli uh maritime assets.

The third phase will consist of attacking US military bases if the US gets involved.

So if the US decides to engage in military operations with Israel against laahouthi positions against any attacks here in Yemen, then that’s when the Yemeni group will begin targeting US military bases in Saudi Arabia, in Oman, and across the region.

Now this is where things get a bit interesting because it doesn’t seem like Houthis actually want to be part of this war and this is where we need to I guess talk a little bit about terrorism politics meaning even the terrorist groups are playing politics of their own.

Now Iran had been supporting the Houthis a lot especially if you go back a few years.

I’m sure the support has slowed down since Iran has been engaged in multiple wars with Israel, but before that they were heavily supporting the Houthis to make sure they build up this axis of resistance.

And now it seems the Iranian leaders who are still alive want to cash in on that support and they are putting heavy pressure on the Houthis to join this war, broaden the conflict and basically set down the straight that’s on the Yemen border.

Now, Houthis don’t really want to get involved because of what happened last year.

Like I said, there was USB B2 bombing rates happening almost every single day over Houthi targets and Houthi infrastructure.

Even the political leadership suffered heavily.

That’s why they agreed to a ceasefire in May of 2025.

But now, it seems they don’t want the same bombing to occur again.

But they’re also facing pressure from Thran to enter the conflict.

So what they did was just fire two missiles at Israel as a warning.

Basically saying that, hey, if you keep attacking Iran, if you keep attacking Lebanon, who Hezbollah and Lebanon, then Houthis will get involved, too.

As of right now, this seems to be just a message, not necessarily Houthis just joining the war fullon, but that may change as escalation happens inside Iran.

Now, the reason I bring up escalation is because yesterday, Israeli forces did something that hasn’t been done so far in this war.

Now, before we talk about that, just a quick reminder to be sure to hit the like and subscribe button down below.

It really does help us out in the algorithm.

And now, let’s talk about this escalation.

Yesterday, Iranian foreign minister put out this statement saying, “Israel has hit two of Iran’s largest steel factories, a power plant, and civilian nuclear sites among other infrastructure.

Israel claims it acted in coordination with the US.

Attacks contradict POTUS extended deadline for diplomacy.

Iran will exact heavy price for Israeli crimes.

Now, we’ll get into the Iranian response to this attack in just a second, but first, let’s dig deeper into what was damaged and why it’s considered an escalation by many.

Just two days ago, President Trump announced that he’s granting Iranian requests to extend the pause on targeting Iranian energy infrastructure.

This pause was extended for 10 days.

So, it would go till April 6th, 2026.

Now, so if we go back to the Iranian foreign minister statements, he is saying that Israel broke this pause that President Trump himself extended for diplomacy.

Now, this is where things get a little complicated because Israel did probably target the two steel plants.

They haven’t publicly admitted to it, but nonetheless, all signs point towards Israel targeting it.

But it doesn’t seem that Israel actually targeted the power plant that the foreign minister is arguing about.

What’s more likely is that power plant was supplying electricity to steel plants and it was damaged in the strikes that were hitting the steel plants.

So not necessarily breaking the pause that President Trump gave but nonetheless it was an escalation because steel plant is really considered part of the civilian sector.

Now the Israelis will argue that it’s dual use right the steel is being used by the military and also by the civilian sector and for Iranians this was actually a huge deal because they exported around $7 billion in steel last year.

So it was a big part of their economy and depending on the extent of the damage it might take a very long time to recover from this attack.

That is important because remember just back in January the regime faced widescale protest because of economic issues that they created.

Those issues have not disappeared even during the war.

And even if war ends, let’s say with regime intact, the economic issues because of these strikes and strikes like these will only get bigger and put more pressure on the regime elites to do something.

Of course, that doesn’t mean
the regime necessarily will collapse.

That could mean Iran turning into something like North Korea where they really don’t care about Iranian people’s livelihood.

All they care about is making sure that the regime survives no matter the cost to the normal population.

That is possible, but it’s also possible that the regime might actually collapse from the economic pressures of the war.

Maybe that’s the calculus Israelis are making.

Cuz unlike the United States, Israel has been somewhat public about one of its goal being regime change.

Not necessarily them forcing through the regime change, but rather creating situation or creating the environment where the Iranian people can overthrow the regime.

That’s what something Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had said publicly.

Well, this is where we shift our focus to the Iranian retaliation because that was also pretty severe.

After Israeli stried Iranian steel producers, Iran went after basically civilian factories all around the Gulf.

And that still to me does not make sense cuz a lot of the countries that Iran is attacking are not really on best of terms with Israel.

So from Israel’s point of view, this is a win-win in a sense.

They destroy Iranian industrial capacity and then in return, Iran is destroying industrial capacity in countries like Saudi, which does not recognize Israel in countries like Qatar, Kuwait, and apparently they’re also attacking Oman, which is supposedly on Iran’s side in this war.

But nonetheless, Iranian plan is to make sure we increase the economic pain as wide as possible.

That way they can end this war quickly.

First, Iran published a list of sites they will target across the Gulf and the Middle East.

This included a steel manufacturing facility in Israel, in Saudi Arabia, in UAE, in Kuwait, in Qatar, and Bahrain.

Now, it doesn’t look like the retaliation attack against these steel factories has come as of yet as I’m recording on Saturday morning around 12:00 p.m.

Israel bombs 2 IRGC-linked steel plants, 2 nuclear facilities as Iran vows  revenge | The Times of Israel

Texas time.

But it seems Iran has hit an aluminum plant in UAE.

This was by far the biggest aluminum plant in the Middle East.

And according to the producer or the owner of this plant, it seems the plant has sustained significant damage during a missile and drone attack on Saturday.

Now, UAE is one of those countries that is actually pretty close to Israel, especially when it comes to Middle Eastern standards because a lot of the Middle Eastern countries do not recognize Israel as a country.

But even then, to me personally, it makes no sense.

Israel is the one carrying out the attacks and the retaliation is coming against a country that’s just considered a friend of that country.

I understand the Iranian strategy is just to make sure everyone feels the pain, but I don’t understand how the world or I guess other countries in the world who are not involved in this war don’t see this as terrorism.

They are going after innocent third parties just because they’re friends with a country that’s attacking them.

But nonetheless, let’s move on to another Iranian retaliation which actually came against a Saudi base where US troops or US service members were stationed.

This was the Saudi base of Prince Sultan.

And in fact, Saudi Arabia just recently, I think a week ago, gave us permission to use this base because Iran kept striking Saudi targets for no reason at all.

Before this permission, Saudi was actually not involved in this war.

US did not have permission to use Saudi airspace.

US did not have permission to use US bases in Saudi Arabia, but that changed because of Iranian retaliation.

And now it seems that the Iranian strike was successfully hit this base on Saturday and injured at least 15 US member, five of which are in actually serious condition.

On top of that, we can see from Chinese satellite photos that there were aircrafts that were burning on the base.

From the looks of it, it seems to be one of the tankers that US has been using to refuel the fighter jets.

And it seems three of them were damaged and one of them was likely destroyed.

This seems to be one of the more successful attacks Iran has carried out against US military assets and of course US service members.

Iranian missile attack sparks blaze in chemical plant, fears of hazardous  leak | The Times of Israel

So even though diplomacy seems to be moving forward, it also seems like war is also escalating and it’s very hard to predict what will happen next.

If Houthus get involved, it may actually convince other Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE to actively get involved, start striking Iranian targets.

And on top of that, if Houthis get involved, that would disrupt a lot of trade to Europe.