A week is a long time in war.

Anything can happen.

And for Russia, seven short days could transform   what was promising to be a revived oil export  economy into a flaming mess caused by Ukrainian   deep strikes.

Of course, that’s precisely what  has happened, as Russia has been forced to endure   seven days of hell that have snatched everything  away.

Ukraine did in one week what sanctions have   failed to do for years, and all Russia can do  is pick through the flaming wreckage.

First, we   take you to March 31.

That’s when the news broke  that Ukraine had carried out a deep strike against   Russia’s vital Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga.

The attack against a massive oil complex that   is responsible for processing 700,000 barrels of  oil exports every single day, in addition to other   exports, such as grains, fertilizers, and coal,  was a shot against a Baltic Sea export network   that handles 40% of Russia’s oil sales.

That  alone would have been very bad news for Putin.

But what we saw on March 31 wasn’t a one-off.

If anything, it was more like a victory lap,   as it was the exclamation point on a week-long  series of deep strikes that targeted Ust-Luga   and Russia’s other key Baltic port, Primorsk.

In  fact, the March 31 attack represented the fourth   time in a single week that Ukraine’s drones  had come crashing down on Ust-Luga, and that   sustained pressure sends a very clear message to  Putin that the oil infrastructure he once thought   was safe is now a target.

Scratch that, it’s not  just a target.

It’s something that Ukraine can
hit at will.

The same goes for Primorsk, which has  been justifiably victimized by repeated Ukrainian   strikes during a week of hell for Russia that  must have felt like it would have no end.

United24   Media provides the details, noting that Ukraine’s  campaign against Putin’s Baltic Sea ports began   on March 23 with a handful of what seemed to  be isolated strikes.

Ukraine had unleashed   its flying sanctions once more, seemingly as a  response to Russia’s ability to capitalize on   the chaos in Iran right now, but that was surely  all that it was going to be.

And if it had been,   it would have been enough.

The March 23  attack caused multiple explosions at Primorsk,   along with fires at fuel tanks that are key to the  operation of a port that can store 921,000 tons   of crude oil and 240,000 tons of petroleum  products when it’s operating at its peak.

But what seemed like an isolated attack proved  to be anything but.

Ukraine followed up.

Day   after day, drones have rained down on Ust-Luga and  Primorsk in a terrific campaign that is far larger   and stronger than anything that Putin could have  anticipated.

These ports were supposed to be safe.

That’s why Russia was using them.

But Ukraine’s  drones have been traveling hundreds of miles,   evading air defenses or simply not encountering  them at all, to cause seven days of sorrow for   the sadistic leader who ordered the invasion of  Ukraine’s territory.

After that week from hell,   Russia has to face up to a fact: Everything is  burning in Ust-Luga and Primorsk.

And the results   speak for themselves.

Three fuel storage tankers  at Ust-Luga were destroyed in a March 29 attack.

Those tanks had a combined capacity of 90,000 tons  of oil, all of which is burning along with the   ruined shells of the tanks that once contained  it.

Ukraine’s March 25 strike against the same   port took out five fuel storage tanks, which  is another 150,000 tons of oil up in flames,   along with hitting a trio of shadow fleet tankers  docked at the port.

Similar damage has been seen   at Primorsk, and Russia has been forced to  completely halt all oil loading several times   over the past week as it puts out fires, assesses  damage, and deals with the fact that weeks,   if not months, of maintenance are going to be  needed to get its destroyed ports back to anywhere   near the capacity that they once had.

And even if  that repair work starts, Russia knows that Ukraine   can just target the ports again.

Nothing could  stop them during the seven days of hell.

It’s   not likely that Russia will be able to do much  of anything about future strikes, either.

The   sailing of the shadow fleet tankers, or, should we  say, the lack thereof, is also revealing.

During   the week between March 23 and March 31, only four  tankers were loaded at Primorsk.

The usual number   is 10.

Ukraine cut down tanker loading volume by  60%.

At Ust-Luga, it was even higher, as only two   of a typical eight tankers have been loaded for an  80% decline.

And of course, fewer loaded tankers   lead to less oil sold.

From a typical figure  of 4.

1 million barrels exported every day,   Russia’s oil sales have tumbled to just 2.

3  million barrels.

That’s 1.

8 million barrels that   aren’t being sold every day at a time when Russia  is trying to make hay while the sun shines due to   oil prices rocketing up in the wake of Operation  Epic Fury.

Of course, fewer barrels being sold   also means less revenue generated by Russia’s  oil industry.

A March 31 United24 Media report   has the details.

It says that the average price of  Russia’s Urals crude had risen by $11.

30, hitting   a high of $73.

24 per barrel, as a result of the  war in Iran.

But despite this sharp increase,   the week of hell that Ukraine inflicted on Russia  with its flying sanctions led to Russia only   generating $1.

44 billion for the week ending March  29.

The previous week has seen Russia’s oil giants   earn revenue of $2.

45 billion, so that’s over $1  billion of oil revenue that the Kremlin can’t tax   for the war in Ukraine.

That’s the entire point.

Russia thought that it had been thrown an economic   lifeline in the Ukraine war, as a combination  of Western sanction failures and rapidly rising   oil prices would allow it to generate billions of  dollars more in oil revenue.

And then, something   changed.

Ukraine took aim with its drones  and hit its targets over and over again.

Now,   the hay that Russia wanted to make while the sun  shone has ignited under the firepower that Ukraine   has delivered to the Baltic ports.

In just seven  days, Ukraine has managed to do what sanctions   have failed to do for years, and it has placed a  Russian economy that, for a moment, had a brief   glimmer of hope on the fast track to complete  ruination.

We’ll be coming back to Russia’s   economic issues later.

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First, let’s home in on  the sanctions failures to which it could be argued   that Ukraine’s week of whittling away at Russia’s  energy exports is a direct response to.

It would   be unfair to claim that Western sanctions are a  complete and total failure against the Russian   war machine.

They have indeed taken a bit out  of Putin’s ability to wage war, as the Economics   Observatory points out.

Between the start of  Putin’s invasion and August 2025, the outlet says,   Western sanctions have cost Russia about $100  billion in revenue that can no longer be used   to pay soldiers or build equipment for use in  Ukraine.

That’s a good result; there is no denying   that.

However, the problem lies in the fact that  $100 billion for a little over three years pales   in comparison to the amount of money that Russia  has still been able to generate from the sales   of oil and gas.

In 2024 alone, the observatory  points out, Russia was able to generate $235   billion from its oil and gas exports.

This was  despite sanctions, and it was actually 0.

5% more   than the amount generated in 2023, and only 3.

7%  less than the revenue generated in 2021, which was   the year after the COVID-19 pandemic crippled oil  sales.

These aren’t the kinds of sweeping results   that Ukraine needed to see from sanctions, and  they have had the consequence of affording Putin   far more money than he should have to fund his  invasion of Ukraine.

Throw the shadow fleet into   the mix, which Putin is believed to have spent  well over $14 billion building and is responsible   for even more illicit oil and gas money flowing  into Russia, and you get a problem.

The West’s   sanctions are good on paper.

They’re also having  an effect.

But they don’t go far enough, and it   could be argued that the enforcement of those  sanctions hasn’t lived up to the promise of what   they’re supposed to deliver.

Then, Operation Epic  Fury and Operation Roaring Lion were launched.

That joint operation against Iran, as effective  as it has been as a display of pure American   firepower, has added to the sanctions issue by  throwing Russia a lifeline, albeit one that isn’t   as strong as Putin wants it to be.

But while  we’re on this, if this is the kind of insight
that you want to see, remember to subscribe to The  Military Show.

We break it down like this every   single week.

There are plenty of arguments for and  against the continuation of Operation Epic Fury,   but the one thing that everybody can agree on  is that it has caused chaos in energy markets.

Iran’s decision to blockade the Strait of  Hormuz through the use of asymmetric tactics   has directly influenced the rising oil prices  that we mentioned earlier.

And for the first   few weeks of the conflict, Putin and his cronies  were all smiles as the oil money started rolling   in.

In a March 12 report, The Guardian noted that  Russia had managed to rake in about €6 billion,   or $6.

93 billion, from fossil fuel sales during  the first two weeks or so of the war in Iran.

That represented a 14% surge over the same period  in February, amounting to an extra €672 million,   or about $776 million, in oil, gas, and coal  sales.

That’s all extra money that Russia wasn’t   supposed to make and that the Kremlin can tax  to fund Putin’s invasion.

By the end of March,   Business Insider was reporting that Russia’s  oil was selling at above global prices due to   the supply shock caused by the Iran war.

Russia’s  oil had gone from being traded at a $12 discount   to selling for a $4 premium compared to North Sea  Dated oil, which is the exact opposite effect that   sanctions and price caps are supposed to have.

Speaking of sanctions, Putin has enjoyed another   boon since the beginning of the Iran war.

Toward the end of March, the U.S.

eased some   of the sanctions that it had implemented against  Russia.

This isn’t a blanket lifting of sanctions,   and it’s important to note that it is only  temporary.

But what it means is that certain   Russian vessels that were once on America’s  sanction list, which includes oil container ships   sailing under the Russian flag, have been given  a general license to complete their oil unloading   operations.

The reprieve is only for cargo that  was loaded before March 12, RBC-Ukraine reports,
and it is valid until April 11.

But even with  these restrictions, America’s decision has   been met with mixed feelings.

On one hand, it’s  easy to see why the U.S.

made this choice, as it   likely sees the temporary lifting of sanctions as  a quick and easy, though by no means long-term,   fix for the oil price shock caused by Operation  Epic Fury.

However, several Western leaders,   including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and  French President Emmanuel Macron, have labeled   the measure as unnecessary and, in Macron’s case,  “in no way” justified.

Even a temporary reprieve   for Russia could open the door for more sanctions  relief in the future, especially if Operation Epic   Fury evolves into a long-term campaign.

Ukrainian  President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, joined the   condemnation, stating during a meeting with Macron  in France, “Lifting the sanctions will  lead  to a strengthening of Russia’s position.

This  easing alone by the United States could provide   Russia with about $10 billion for the war.

That  certainly does not help peace.

” Now, of course,   everything that the U.S.

How much territory does Russia control in Ukraine? | Russia-Ukraine war  News | Al Jazeera

has done that helps  Russia is temporary.

The same could be said of the   Strait of Hormuz blockade and the oil price chaos  that it has helped to cause.

President Donald   Trump himself stated on April 1 that the U.S.

is  “finishing the job” in Iran, though it will take   another “two to three weeks” to do so.

We’ll have  to wait and see if that’s true.

If it is, then an   end date to the chaos that has benefited Russia is  in sight.

But for Ukraine, any benefit at all to   Russia is too much.

Rather than letting Putin get  away with generating more cash, both through poor   implementation of past sanctions and everything  that has happened during Operation Epic Fury,   Ukraine took the second option: If traditional  sanctions aren’t helping as much as they should,   then a week’s worth of flying sanctions will do  the job.

And that brings us back to Ust-Luga,   Primorsk, and Russia’s entire Baltic Sea oil  lifeline in general.

Plus, there’s one more thing   that we’ve yet to cover, so stick with us to the  end to find out what that is.

Now, on the Baltic   front, we’ve already shared plenty of numbers  covering the immediate impact of the seven days of   hell.

Let’s now look at what Ukraine has achieved  through a wider lens.

According to The Atlantic   Council, the two Baltic ports that Ukraine has  been shattering for seven days are responsible   for 40% of all of Russia’s export capacity.

That is an enormous number, and Ukraine’s   strikes against that capacity are causing plenty  of concern in and outside of Russia.

Oil and gas   industry analyst Boris Aronshtein has already  labeled what we’ve seen in just a week as “the   most serious threat to exports of Russian oil”  since Putin launched his invasion back in 2022.

That threat can be built on.

Ukraine has clearly  established pathways to the Baltic ports, and   Russia has now had more than a week to respond to  them, but hasn’t.

These strikes are also evidence,   were any more of it needed, that Ukraine has built  up its long-range strike capabilities to the point   where it can hit a huge number of targets that  are of critical importance to Russia.

These are   all signals to which Putin has to pay attention,  because Ukraine repeatedly hitting Russia’s Baltic   ports is going to take them offline, perhaps for  the duration of the Ukraine war, assuming Ukraine   continues deploying its flying sanctions.

Let’s  revisit the early oil sales success that Russia   enjoyed during the first two weeks of Operation  Epic Fury.

We told you earlier that The Guardian   reported that Russia made $6.

93 billion during the  first two weeks of the Iran war.

The Baltic ports   haven’t been shut down completely by Ukraine,  but they’re edging closer.

If that happens,   the $6.

93 billion for two weeks drops to $4.

158  billion, just by virtue of Russia losing 40% of   its export capacity.

Let’s throw in the $235  billion figure we mentioned earlier, which was   Russia’s 2024 oil and gas revenue.

That drops to  $141 billion when 40% of Russia’s export capacity   is taken out of commission.

The point we’re making  here is that Ukraine’s flying sanctions have shown   that the Russian economy can be impacted heavily  in as little as one week.

Imagine what Ukraine   could achieve with a month of strikes.

Or a year.

The Baltic ports could be transformed into a hot   zone that no tanker captain in their right mind  would want to enter, and that could pull billions   upon billions of dollars out of Putin’s war purse.

And it gets better for Ukraine.

A moment ago,   we told you that there is another thing that we’ve  yet to cover in this video.

That other thing is   Siberia.

If Putin thinks that what’s happening  in Russia’s Baltic ports is a problem right now,   he’ll be furious when he figures out how Ukraine  has been connecting the dots to create a campaign   designed to cripple Russia’s economy.

United24 has  the details, as it points out that Ust-Luga and   Primorsk are part of a Siberian oil supply chain  that includes the Druzhba pipeline and a pair of   refineries – Kirishinefteorgsintez and Yaroslavl.

Collectively, these facilities are responsible   for 2.

6 million of the nine million barrels  that Russia itself claims that it can produce   every single day.

That’s almost a third of all of  Russia’s oil exports focused on these five sites.

Now, Ust-Luga and Primorsk are being hit so hard  that they’re forced to shut down.

The Druzhba   pipeline has been shut down since January,  which is causing supply problems for Hungary,   Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and several other  central European countries.

That’s three of five   dots connected.

Zelenskyy accuses Putin of being 'afraid' of peace talks

Another comes into play when you  realize that the week of hell Ukraine inflicted   on Russia also included a strike against  the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery about   mid-way through the week.

That strike was  powerful enough to close the refinery down,   which takes yet more barrels that Russia could  export out of the picture.

As for Yaroslavl, you   can probably guess what we’re about to tell you –  it was also hit.

March 28 brought with it the news   that this refinery was also in flames following  a Ukrainian drone strike.

Dot upon dot has been   connected.

While Ust-Luga and Primorsk have been  grabbing all of the headlines, and rightfully so,   the specter behind those obvious problems for  Russia is that Ukraine has been taking out the   entire Siberian oil supply chain.

Bit by bit, it  has crumbled.

This was coordinated and calculated   to an extent that we haven’t seen from Ukraine  at any point during the Ukraine war.

The days of   isolated strikes against Russia’s oil facilities  are over.

Ukraine has upgraded its strategy again.

Repeated strikes against key nodes in entire  supply chains are now the order of the deep   strike day, and that’s the big problem for Putin.

He’s losing critical assets that prop up Russia’s   economy at a time when that economy is stagnating,  and even pro-Kremlin experts are saying that it is   being brought to its knees.

The Central Bank of  Russia, the Higher School of Economics, and the   Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term  Forecasting are all putting out indicators that   the Russian economy has been entering a recession  since November 2025, and it’s only going to go   downhill from here.

Ukraine has Russia on the  ropes.

The challenge now is to keep it there.

The week from hell should be the combination of  jabs that is followed by haymakers, uppercuts, and   everything else that Ukraine can throw at Russia.

In other words, Ukraine’s task now is to keep the   Siberian supply chain offline.

Temporary closures  are one thing, and they showcase the effectiveness   of Ukraine’s flying sanctions.

But if Ukraine  keeps it up, Operation Epic Fury will end,   Russia’s infrastructure won’t be able to recover,  and the billions that Russia is already losing   to Ukraine’s strikes will become tens of billions  that could be enough to pressure Putin into ending   his invasion.

And as Russia is trying to lick  wounds that Ukraine seems intent on reopening   following the week of hell, Ukraine is going from  strength to strength.

Deals are being signed in   the Middle East that could secure Ukraine’s  financial and war-fighting future for a long   time to come, and it’s all happening because of  the lessons that Ukraine has learned in its battle   against Russia.

Do you want to find out more?  Check out our page on how the Iran war is making   Ukraine a key player in the Middle East.